The $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic has seen three consecutive betting favorites take down the top prize. Is it more of the same this year? Let’s take a look at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic betting trends.
The Rick Dutrow trained White Abarrio won the 2023 edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, returning his backers $7.20 and topping a $2 exacta that paid a hefty $179.40 with 26-1 Japanese invader Derma Sotogake running second.
The average win payoff in the history of the Classic is $20.06 and over the last dozen years that number is a paltry $9.01. The betting favorite has won 12 of the 40 runnings. The favorite has run second twice. The second choice in the wagering has won the Classic six times. Flightline was the shortest price in Classic history, returning just $2.88 in 2022.
Over the last 12 years we have seen six speed horses win the race on the front end. While horses with a closing style won the race from 2006 to 2011, since then horses on or relatively close to the pace have had the advantage. From 2007 to 2011 the winner of the Classic was 10 or more lengths back after a half mile. In the last 12 years every winner was within four lengths of the lead after a half mile.
The two Classic winners at Del Mar were Knicks Go in 2021 and Gun Runner in 2017 and they both took the field gate to wire.
Three-Year-Olds Competitive
Three-year-olds have managed to beat their elders 13 times and 4 times in the last 12 years. The most recent sophomore to win the Classic was Authentic ($10.40) in 2020. It was trainer Bob Baffert’s fourth Classic win and all four have been with three-year-olds. All four of his wins have come in the last decade. Baffert is 4 for 29 overall in the race.
Four of the last seven winners competed in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga including White Abarrio last year. Other key races to look at include the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the California Crown.
Pleasantly Perfect in 2003 was the last Classic winner to win without having a previous G1 victory. Only three other Classic winners had not won a G1—Concern, Alphabet Soup and Volponi.
A sharp final prep is important. The last 24 Classic winners landed in the exacta in their final prep. A total of 16 of those Classic winners won their final prep.
Post positions have not been much of a factor in the Classic. The wiener has exited the 12 post four times and the 14 post twice. The 1 post is just 2 for 40. The best winning post is the 4 which has produced seven winners.
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Winning Profile
The winner profile according to the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic Betting Trends is to look at the obvious. Over the past 11 years we have had just one winner pay above $14 to win. Could it be more of the same this year? Let’s look for a contender that is coming off a sharp win in a G1 or G2 race at nine furlongs or longer. One with good tactical speed to be on or close to the lead. The lean is to look at a four or five-year-old. The wildcard this year will be the Euro invader City of Troy and the Japanese contenders, making this year one where we don’t want to take too short a price.
Classic by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $9.01
Avg. Exacta payoff: $100.37
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 113.3
Betting Favorites All time: 12 for 40
2023 Winner: White Abarrio ($7.20)
$2 Exacta: $179.40 $0.50 Trifecta: $450.90
Winner final prep: Won Whitney (G1)
Runner up: Derma Sotogake (26-1)
Runner up final prep: 6th Kentucky Derby (G1)
Check out the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Saturday by the Numbers for more betting trends on the big day of racing.
