The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile betting trends show four straight chalks, the very popular Cody’s Wish winning the last pair, paying $6.32 at Keeneland in 2022 and $3.60 last year at Santa Anita.
The $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile has been run since 2007 and among the Saturday races tend to be the most formful, with an average mutuel payoff of $18.40, and over the past dozen years the average just $12.59.
2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Betting Trends
The Dirt Mile tends to draw a field of runners not quite up to being competitive in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, either in form or unable to get the farther distance. This year’s race will be run around two turns.
The betting favorite has won 6 of the 17 editions including the last four. The second choice in the betting has won the race three times. We have had six winners pay $20+ topped by Dakota Phone at $77.40 in 2010 at Churchill Downs.
We saw four wire jobs from 2018 to 2021 before Cody’s Wish won the last two with his late running style. In total six of the winners won on the front.
There is not much of a post position bias from 1-8, but an inside post is slightly better. Posts 9-12 are a combined 2 for 43.
The last winner that prepped in Southern California was Goldencents who won back-to-back in 2013 and 2014. The colt used the Santa Anita Sprint Championship as his final prep each year. The last three winners had their final prep in New York.
Just three of the winners have come into the race off a race at 6 or 7 furlongs, Cody’s Wish winning the past two years off preps at seven panels.
The last five winners won their final prep. 11 of the 17 winners ran in the exacta in their final prep. The key preps to look at include the Forego, Vosburgh, Kelso and Santa Anita Sprint Championship.
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Winning Profile
Generally, we would like to see our choice come in off a sharp route race, but Cody’s Wish blew that up the past two years so any sharp race will do. The winner likely will have competed in G1 and G2 company and has tactical speed to be able to sit within 4-5 lengths of the lead. The key preps to look at happened in New York or Kentucky. This has not been one of the better wagering races the past three years, with two exactas paying under $15.
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Dirt Mile by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $12.59
Avg. Exacta payoff: $81.31
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 106.6
Betting Favorites All time: 6 for 17
2023 Winner: Cody’s Wish ($3.60)
$2 Exacta: $14.40 $0.50 Trifecta: $16.85
Winner final prep: Won Vosburgh (G2)
Runner up: National Treasure (9-2)
Runner up final prep: 4th Awesome Again (G1)
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