While the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff has been run pretty true to form over the last decade, the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Betting Trends suggests not so fast. Could we see an upset this year?
2024 Breeders’ Cup Distaff Betting Trends
The betting favorite in the Distaff has won 17 times in the 40 runnings of the race, including 3 of the last 6. In fact, in 10 of the last 13 years the winner has paid less than $10 to win. However, we did catch one of the biggest upsets in the history of the race in 2021 at Del Mar with Japan invader Marche Lorraine lighting up the toteboard to the tune of $101.80. The exacta came back a record $1,026.60 for $2 with 12-1 Dunbar Road running second.
The second choice in the Distaff betting has won the race seven times while the third choice in the wagering has won the race six times.
Last year we saw Idiomatic win as the betting favorite ($5.60) and topping a $2 exacta that paid $41.60. Idiomatic is back looking to defend her title.
Idiomatic Seeks to Go Back to Back
We have seen just two back-to-back winners, Bayakoa in 1989 and 1990 and Royal Delta in 2011 and 2012. We have seen two others win twice, Beholder winning in 2013 and again in 2016 and Monomoy Girl took the title in 2018 and 2020.
Three-year-old fillies have fared well in the Distaff, winning 11 times, while four-year-olds have won 20 times. There have been five five-year-olds mares that have won the race. We have seen four six-year-old mares win, including Blue Prize in 2019.
Idiomatic took the field gate to wire last year, the first to do so since Royal Delta in 2012. Stalkers and closers have dominated this race going back two decades.
The Spinster at Keeneland is a key race, producing 13 winners of the Distaff including three of the last five winners. The Beldame has produced nine winners with the Ruffian and Zenyatta seven each. The last five Distaff winners won their final prep race. 15 of the last 17 Distaff winners have come into the race owning at least one Grade 1 victory.
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The road to the Distaff was exactly the same the past two years. Both Idiomatic and Malathat prepped by running in the Personal Ensign (G1) and then the Spinster (G1), both winning their two preps.
Post position 1 has been the best draw, accounting for eight Distaff winners. From 2018 to 2021 the winner broke from either than 10 or 11 post. Posts 12-14 are a combined 1 for 14.
Trainer Brad Cox has won 3 of the last six runnings of the Distaff including Idiomatic last year. He has won those three races with a total of just five starters in the Distaff. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Distaff three times, with Malathat ($7.76) in 2022, Stopchargingmaria ($16.20) in 2015, and Ashado ($6.00) in 2004. Overall Pletcher is 3 for 23 in the Distaff.
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Winning Profile
Let’s give the edge to a four or five-year-old that comes from off the pace. Likely to exit a sharp win in the Spinster or the Personal Ensign. A Japanese invader could certainly make things tough for the home team again this year. Cox looks to pick up his fourth win in this race in just seven years, but his trainee is likely going to be a short price again this year.
Distaff by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $16.41
Avg. Exacta payoff: $150.67
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 101.7
Betting Favorites All time: 17 for 40
2023 Winner: Idiomatic ($5.60)
$2 Exacta: $41.60 $0.50 Trifecta: $74.70
Winner final prep: Won Spinster (G1)
Runner up: Randomized (8-1)
Runner up final prep: Won Beldame (G2)
