Looking at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint betting trends it is easy to see chalk players have done well in this race in recent years.
The betting favorite has won the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in four of the last five years. The Chad Brown trained Goodnight Olive won the last two runnings of this race, returning her backers $5.70 in 2022 and last year just $4.20 as the chalk at Santa Anita.
Add in Covfefe ($5.00) in 2019 and Gamine ($4.20) in 2020, and we have seen some small prices in recent years. However, that is not always the case. Bar of Gold returned $135.40 and topped a $2 exacta that paid $2,060.40 in 2017 at Del Mar. The following year Shamrock Rose pulled off the upset to the tune of $53.80 with the exacta paying $720.00.
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2024 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Betting Trends
The betting favorite is 7 for 17 overall in the history of the Filly & Mare Sprint. The second choice in the betting has won just twice, and third choice has accounted for one win.
Goodnight Olive prepped in the Ballerina both years. In 2021 Ce Ce ran third in the Ballerina, then won the Chillingworth at Santa Anita before scoring in the Filly & Mare Sprint, returning $14.40.
Two preps that have been very productive but not since 2017 are the Presque Isle Masters and the TCA.
Don’t forget while the Breeders’ Cup Sprint is contested at six furlongs, the Filly & Mare Sprint is run at seven furlongs. Having a prep at seven panels is very beneficial and the last seven winners had one of their two final preps at either 6 ½ or 7 furlongs.
A sharp prep is key. Of the 17 winners, nine came in off a win and five ran second.
We have seen just one wire job in this race, Finest City ($19.40) leading from start to finish in 2016 at Santa Anita. While speed tyles have not fared well, being close to the pace is helpful. Each of the last five winners were just 1-3 lengths off the pacesetter at first call.
Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has won the race four times. In addition to Goodnight Olive, who booted home longshots bar of Gold and Shamrock Rose in back to back years in 2017 and 2018.
Three-year-old fillies have beaten their elders three times in this race, in consecutive years from 2018 to 2020.
Winning Profile
After looking at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint betting trends we are seeking out a sharp filly or mare coming off a win or a runner up finish going seven furlongs. Ideally exiting the Ballerina or the TCA. We want a contender that has good tactical speed to be able to sit just a couple of lengths off the lead. She should own at least a Grade 2 win, and at last a first or second in Grade 1 company.
F&M Sprint by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $23.64
Avg. Exacta payoff: $302.79
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 100.5
Betting Favorites All time: 7 for 17
2023 Winner: Goodnight Olive ($4.20)
$2 Exacta: $71.20 $0.50 Trifecta: $236.65
Winner final prep: 2nd Ballerina (G1)
Runner up: Yuugiri (26-1)
Runner up final prep: Won TCA (G2)
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