Let’s take a look at the 2024 betting trends for the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), the richest race in North America for two-year-olds. The race determines the early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
In 2023 the race was won by Fierceness ($35.00), who ended up a disappointing 15th as the betting favorite in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
Here are the key 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile betting trends:
The betting favorite in the Juvenile got the job done three times in the past dozen years and overall has won 13 of the 40 editions. The betting favorite has run second eight times and landed third six times. The second choice in the wagering has won the Juvenile 11 times.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won in the last two years and four times overall. In addition to Fierceness last year, Pletcher saddled Forte ($12.04 in 2022 at Keeneland. Pletcher comes into the 2024 Breeders’ Cup with a 4 for 28 mark in the Juvenile.
Bob Baffert has won the Juvenile five times, most recently with Corniche ($4.80) in 2021. His overall record in the Juvenile is 5 for 36.
Check out the latest Breeders’ Cup betting news, updates, betting trends and stats.
Sharp Preps Are Key
Four of the previous five winners of the race came into the Juvenile off victories. Pletcher saddled the 2022 winner Forte ($12.04) who came into the race off a game win by a neck in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. Fierceness ran a dud in a seventh-place finish in the Champagne (G1). That was the first Juvenile winner to run worse than third in their final prep since Unbridled’s Song fourth place finish in the Champagne in 1995.
Going back 13 years every Juvenile winner except for one exited with the Champagne (3), Breeders’ Futurity (3) or the American Pharoah / Frontrunner (6). The lone exception was New Year’s Day who won the Juvenile off his maiden win.
Speed horses have fared well recently, with six of the last 13 winners taking the field gate to wire. Among those was the 2021 winner at Del Mar, the Bob Baffert trained Corniche ($4.80).
The trend in recent years is less is more. Since 2010, eight of the winners of the Juvenile did so off just two career starts. Forte had four races under his belt in 2022.
The top Beyer Speed Figure average earned in a prep for the Juvenile winners overall is 91. That checked well in the past two years, with Forte owning as 92 and Fierceness producing a prep with a 95 Beyer. However, in six of the previous seven years, the high was 89 or below. Storm the Court’s (2019) high was just 75 and Essential Quality had earned just an 83 in 2020.
The average winning Beyer in the Juvenile over the past dozen years is 94.6. Five of those winners earned triple digit numbers led by Fierceness, who scored a 105 last year.
For post positions the 3-5 post has had the most success with six winners each. Posts eight and outward have accounted for nine winners.
Only four Breeders’ Cup races have produced higher average exacta payoffs going back 12 years. The exacta has paid over $100 in 8 of the past 12 years including a topper of $976.40 in 2019 followed by a $599.80 exacta in 2020.
Winning Profile
Now that we have looked at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile betting trends, and we start looking for the winner in the Juvenile, a good place to start is two-year-olds that ran sharp races in the Breeders’ Futurity, Champagne or American Pharoah. They should have two or three starts under their belt and does not hurt to be in a high-profile barn. They should have experience going two turns and have run at least a Beyer of 85 or higher in their career. An inside post is beneficial, and don’t settle for a short price.
Juvenile by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $21.98
Avg. Exacta payoff: $219.62
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 94.6
Betting Favorites All time: 13 for 40
2023 Winner: Fierceness ($35.00)
$2 Exacta: $202.60 $0.50 Trifecta: $171.80
Winner final prep: 7th Champagne (G1)
Runner up: Muth (5-2)
Runner up final prep: Won American Pharoah (G1)
