Let’s take a look at the $2 million 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies betting trends, which is the richest race in North America for two-year-old fillies.
The 2023 winner was Just F Y I from the Bill Mott barn. The filly paid $16.00 to win and was ridden by Junior Alvarado. The filly went on to run second in both the Ashland (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) in her next two starts. Her last start was a sixth-place finish in the Acorn (G1) in June at Saratoga.
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Here are the key 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies betting trends:
2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Betting Trends
Favorites have fared quite well in the Juvenile Fillies over the four decades, winning 19 of the 40 editions. The second and third choices in the betting have each accounted for four wins. The race has produced more winning favorites than any other Breeders’ Cup race.
However, over the past dozen years the betting favorite has gone just 2 for 12 and in three of the last four years the favorite has run out of the money. We also have seen three bombs hit—Champagne Room ($69.20) in 2016, Take Charge Brandi ($125.40) in 2014 and Ria Antonia ($66.60) in 2013, the latter thanks to a disqualification.
The Key prep is the Frizette (G1), with Just F Y I becoming the 15th Juvenile Fillies winner to use that prep and third in the last four years. Wonder Wheel used the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland as a final prep in 2022, as did British Idiom in 2019.
The last two winners to prep on the west coast were Champagne Road ($69.20) and Songbird ($3.20), who exited the Chandelier (G1) at Santa Anita in back-to-back years in 2015 and 2016.
We have seen five winners go gate to wire in the past 12 years including Echo Zulu ($3.60) at Del Mar in 2021. When it comes to post position over the last nine years, we have seen one winner break from the 10 post and two from the 12 post. Caledonia Road ($36.60) broke from the 12 post at Del Mar in 2017.
We have seen a wide variety of trainers win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, a different trainer in each of the last 12 years. Steve Asmussen is the last trainer to win twice, in 2021 and 2011. Bob Baffert is 2 for 25 in the race. Jockey Joel Rosario has won 3 of the last 6 editions, the most recent being Echo Zulu in 2021.
Just F Y I had just two career starts under her belt coming into this race last year. Wonder Wheel had four in 2022, while both Vequist and Echo Zulu came in with three starts in 2020 and 2021.
Five of the last seven winners of the Juvenile Fillies won their final prep, the other two running second.
Winning Profile
While favorites have done well in this race overall, outsiders have fared well in recent years so looking for a price is preferred. The key races to look at are the Frizette and the Alcibiades. It is important for the winner to have a race of at least a mile. While the average wining Beyer overall is 86, the last two winners were below that. Just F Y I earned a 79 while Wonder Wheel produced an 83. Ideally a filly that has tactical speed, and an outside post it not really a negative. Don’t be afraid to take a filly from a lower profile barn.
Juvenile Fillies by the Digits:
(last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $31.75
Avg. Exacta payoff: $341.64
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 86.2
Betting Favorites All time: 19 for 40
2023 Winner: Just F Y I ($16.00)
$2 Exacta: $202.40 $0.50 Trifecta: $200.55
Winner final prep: Won Frizette (G1)
Runner up: Jody’s Pride (17-1)
Runner up final prep: Won Matron
