It’s apples and oranges when looking at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile Betting Trends, but mainly apples. As in trainer Charlie Appleby.
Appleby has saddled the last three winners of the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Euros have now won five of the last six editions of the race.
The streak by Appleby started with Space Blues ($6.20) in 2021, Moden Games ($4.76) in 2022 and last year made it a hat trick with Master of the Seas ($8.60).
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2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile Betting Trends
While Space Blues was making his North American debut, Modern Games had won the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Del Mar and won the 2022 Woodbine Mile (G1), then shipped back across the pond to run second in the Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Ascot in his final prep. Master of the Seas made two starts stateside, winning the Woodbine Mile and running second beaten a nose in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland.
O’Brien With the Upset
Four years ago we saw the biggest upset in the history of the Mile with the Aiden O’Brien trained Order of Australia paying $148.40. The colt had been beaten 47 ¾ lengths in a ninth place finish in the International Stakes (G3) at the Curragh in his previous outing. It was O’Brien’s lone win in the Mile where his record stands at 1 for 29.
The last U.S. based trainer to win the Mile was Chad Brown with Uni ($9.20) in 2019. Brown is 1 for 12 with his starters in his career in this race.
In the history of the Breeders’ Cup Mile the betting favorite has won at a 35% clip, taking 14 out of the 40 editions. The second choice in the betting has won eight times. The favorite has won 8 of the last 16 runnings.
We still have not seen a winner of the Mile take the field gate to wire since Lure did it in back to back years in 1992 and 1993.
The Ladies Can Win
10 fillies and mares have beaten the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Three of those were by Goldikova, who won three in a row from 2008 through 2010. Eight of the 10 were Euros, the lone exceptions the Mark Casse trained Tepin who won in 2015 at Keeneland and Uni in 2019 for Brown.
There have been a dozen three-year-olds win the Mile. Among those, nine were Euro invaders including the last six.
The key Euro prep to look is the Prix de la Foret (G1) at Longchamp. The main U.S. preps are the Woodbine Mile and Shadwell Mile at Keeneland.
With a short run to the first turn in most Mile races on the turf, an outside post can be detrimental, but we have not seen that in this race. Four winners have broken from the 10 post, three each from the 11 and 12 posts, we have one winner breaking from the 13 and a pair that broke from the 14 post.
Winning Profile
After looking at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Mile betting trends it is obvious we want to start first with the main contenders coming from across the pond. They should have experience in Group 1 company going a mile, come in off a sharp race, and have a stalker or closing running style. We will pay extra attention to contenders coming off final preps at Longchamp and Woodbine.
Mile by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $25.63
Avg. Exacta payoff: $307.19
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 105.5
Betting Favorites All time: 14 for 40
2023 Winner: Master of the Seas ($8.60)
$2 Exacta: $39.80 $1 Trifecta: $82.95
Winner final prep: 2nd in Turf Mile (G1)
Runner up: Mawj (9-2)
Runner up final prep: Won QEII Cup (G1)
Check out all of the latest betting trends for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup at Iron News.
