The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint is the final race on the schedule for the two-day championship event. Let’s take a look at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Sprint betting trends as we seek out the winner of this six-furlong test on the dirt.
The race was won by Elite Power in each of the last two years. The Bill Mott trainee paid $13.10 in 2022 at Keeneland and last year was sent off as the betting favorite, returning his Backers $5.40. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard for both victories.
2024 Breeders’ Cup Sprint Betting Trends
The betting favorite was 0 for 7 in recent years in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint before Elite Power got the job done last year. Overall, the betting favorite of the Sprint is now 9 for 40. The second choice has won the race seven times, the third choice has picked up the win seven times.
We have seen 4 of the last dozen winners returning $24 or more led by Work All Week who paid $40.20 in 2014 at Santa Anita.
The last five Sprint winners made their final prep in either New York or Kentucky. Roy H won back-to-back in 2017 and 2018 using preps in Southern California. Last year Elite Power came in off a runner up finish in the Forego (G1) and in 2022 the colt came in off a victory in the Vosburgh (G1).
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A Sharp Final Prep is Needed
Going back 14 years, 13 of the Sprint winners landed in the exacta in their final preps. The lone exception was Whitmore, who checked in fourth in the Phoenix (G2) in 2020.
Since 2008 10 of the Sprint winners had a race at seven furlongs in at least one of their two final preps including the last five winners.
Three-year-olds have won the Sprint nine times. The most recent to win was Drefong ($9.80) for Bob Baffert in 2016. The colt won the King’s Bishop (G1) at Saratoga in his final prep and that was his stakes debut. Baffert has won the Sprint five times.
Older runners have fared well in recent years. Elite Power was five last year. Whitmore was seven, and Roy H won it back-to-back at ages five and six.
The last seven winners had a post between 4 and 8. The last winner to draw the rail was Big Drama ($12.40) in 2010. Work All Week ($40.20) won from the 13 post in 2014. Posts 12-14 are a combined 1 for 63.
We have seen a dozen wire jobs in the 40 editions of the Sprint. The last to do so was Drefrong in 2016.
The three key prep races are the Vosburgh and Forego in New York and the Phoenix at Keeneland. The key race on the west coast is the Santa Anita Sprint Championship.
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Winning Profile
After reviewing the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Sprint betting trends, the winning profile comes into focus. The winner will come into the race off a sharp set of preps, likely a win. A prep in New York or Keeneland is preferable. A four- or five-year-old with a stalking running style and who draws a post toward the middle. Only six of the last 15 winners have paid under $10.00, so we need a price.
Sprint by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $16.48
Avg. Exacta payoff: $115.51
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 105.7
Betting Favorites All time: 9 for 40
2023 Winner: Elite Power ($5.40)
$2 Exacta: $16.00 $0.50 Trifecta: $46.90
Winner final prep: 2nd Forego (G1)
Runner up: Gunite (3-1)
Runner up final prep: 2nd Parx Dirt Mile
