The 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf betting trends can lead us in one main direction again this year, and that is looking for another Euro invader to take down the top prize.
The Euros have won the last four editions of the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Turf. Euro invaders making their last start across the pond accounted for 25 of the 41 winners (there was one deadheat) of the Breeders’ Cup Turf including 20 of the last 25.
O’Brien Owns Seven Turf Wins
Trainer Aiden O’Brien won his seventh Breeders’ Cup Turf last year with Auguste Rodin ($7.00). It was his first win since Highland Reel $14.80) in 2016. The superstar trainer is now 7 for 34 In the Turf.
Over the last nine years the only U.S. based trainer to win the Turf was Chad Brown, who saddled Bricks and Mortar ($4.00) in 2019. Brown is now 1 for 14 in the Turf overall.
Watch and wager on the Breeders’ Cup at Iron Bets. New players can earn up to a $300 first deposit bonus.
Favorite Has Won a Dozen
The betting favorite in the Turf has won 12 times in the 40 editions of the race, including 3 of the last 6. However, the favorite ran out of the money in both 2021 and 2022. The betting favorite has run second eight times.
While the Euros have dominated, it is not always the obvious contender that gets the job done. Among the highly regarded Euro invaders to lose to another foe coming from across the pond were Tarnawa (2-1) in 2021, Magical (2-1 in 2020), Highland Reel (7-5 in 2017), Golden Horn (4-5 in 2015), The Fugue (3-2 in 2013) and Behkabad (6-5) in 2010.
The ladies have performed well in this race in recent years. Tarnawa ($11.40) beat the boys in 2020, Enable did not disappoint as the favorite ($3.60) in 2018 and Found ($14.80) got the job done in 2015.
We have seen 10 three-year-olds take top honors in the Turf. Eight of the 10 were based outside of the U.S.
In 13 of the last 17 years the Turf winner had a previous win at 1 ½ miles.
We have only seen four Turf winners go gate to wire, the most recent being Highland Reel ($9.60) in 2016 at Santa Anita. Closers have won the last four editions.
The key prep for Euros is the Arc de Triomphe (G1). Last year’s winner prepped in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1). The key U.S. based prep is the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont Park.
When it comes to post positions, the two post has accounted for eight winners while the nine post has won seven times. While the 10 post is 0 for 33 outsider posts in general are fine. The Turf winner has exited the 11 post twice, the 12 post four times and the 13 post twice.
Like the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf Betting Trends? Check out Iron News for more updates on the Breeders’ Cup.
Winning Profile
It is pretty obvious the Euros are the first contenders to look at. Any runners sent out by Appleby and O’Brien should not be tossed. We want a proven router, preferably a G1 winner at 1 ½ miles. A contender that has good late foot. It is a good idea to look past the top choice and look for a Euro contender that offers more bang for the buck.
Turf by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $15.96
Avg. Exacta payoff: $84.14
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 106.2
Betting Favorites All time: 12 for 40
2023 Winner: Auguste Rodin ($7.00)
$2 Exacta: $25.80 $0.50 Trifecta: $74.95
Winner final prep: Won Irish Champion (G1)
Runner up: Up to the Mark (7-2)
Runner up final prep: Won Turf Mile (G1)
