We did not get a Triple Crown bid in 2025 but an early look at the possible Belmont Stakes field reveals we could have the next best thing, a showdown between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner.
The connections of Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty elected to skip the second jewel of the Triple Crown, igniting a firestorm among horseplayers and fans on whether the Triple Crown is in need of a reboot.
That debate can now wait after jockey Umberto Rispoli got Journalism out of a tough spot and rallied to get up late to win the Preakness Stakes on Saturday.
Journalism trainer Michael McCarthy and Aron Wellman, founder and president of Eclipse Thoroughbreds and the managing partner of the ownership group, both seem to indicate that the colt will be shipped to New York and their intention is to run in the Belmont Stakes.
“We’ll go through the same analysis as we went through between the Derby and the Preakness,” Wellman said. “That horse in Stall 33 will tell us whether he’s ready to go back in three weeks. It’s something we’d like to do. It’s something that we’re going to prepare for logistically in the event he does give us the green light. But whereas from the Derby to the Preakness, we really had a week to make that decision, we’ll have two-plus weeks to assess him.”
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There is still plenty of time for changes, but as of now it looks like there are seven (McAfee is headed to the Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby at Thistledown on June 21) that seem likely or possible for the Belmont Stakes on June 7:
Sovereignty
Trainer: Bill Mott
Record: 6-3-2-0
Earnings: $3,672,880
Last Start: Won Kentucky Derby (G1)
Last Beyer Speed Figure: 104
The Derby winner paid $17.86 to win as third choice on the first Saturday of May. The colt earned a career top Beyer of 104, improving 12 points over his 92 he earned in a runner up finish in the Florida Derby (G1) in his previous start. The colt earned a 96 winning the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park three back.
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Kentucky Derby Replay
Journalism
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Record 7-5-1-1
Earnings: $2,833,830
Last Start: Won Preakness Stakes
Last Beyer Speed Figure: 98
After a solid runner up finish as the beaten favorite in the slop at Churchill Downs he was one of just three to exit the Derby and run back in the Preakness. By now you have probably seen the replay a dozen times of his trip. It seems likely we are going to see a showdown on June 7, and this colt may end up the betting favorite over the Derby winner. He has won five of his last six starts and a cleaner trip could make him very tough to beat.
Preakness Stakes Replay
Baeza
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Record: 5-1-2-1
Earnings: $648,500
Last Start: 3rd Kentucky Derby (G1)
Last Beyer Speed Figure: 102
Let’s not forget about this guy. The Shirreffs trainee has won just once in his five career starts but his last two efforts were rock solid. Two back he was a game second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his first start against winners. He earned a 101 Beyer, coming up less than a length short. He did not have the best of trips in the Kentucky Derby and managed to come with a wide run to finish third, beaten just a neck for the runner up spot while 2 ½ lengths clear of the rest of the field. This colt could have more upside than the two Triple Crown race winners.
Hill Road
Trainer: Chad Brown
Record: 5-2-0-2
Earnings: $336,496
Last Start: Won Peter Pan (G3)
Last Beyer Speed Figure: 94
This is another colt that is getting good at the right time. He made a good late rally to get up late and win the Peter Pan (G3) last out over McAfee. The Brown trainee was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall, beaten 4 ¾ lengths. His three-year-old debut came in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) where he raced near the back of the pack and finished evenly in a third-place finish. He looks as if he can handle the 1 ¼ miles.
Peter Pan Replay
Heart of Honor
Trainer: Jamie Osbourne
Record: 7-2-4-0
Earnings: $400,919
Last Start: 5th Preakness (G1)
Last Beyer Speed Figure: 86
The colt was sent off at 19-1 in the Preakness in his U.S. debut and checked in fifth, beaten 8 ¾ lengths. He acted up a bit in the gate and did not break cleanly. After being outrun early he did make up some ground late. The UAE Derby (G2) runner up looks a cut below but does seem eligible to move forward off his last effort.
Gosger
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Record: 4-2-2-0
Earnings: $692,200
Last Start: 2nd Preakness (G1)
Last Beyer Speed Figure: 97
How did this colt not win the Preakness? After prompting the early pace, he drew off to a five-length lead in the stretch and looked well on his way to victory at 15-1. He got run down late, coming up a half-length short in a solid effort. The Walsh trainee has shown improvement with each start, winning the Lexington (G3) two back in his stakes debut. There does not appear to be a ton of early pace so far in this race, which could make him dangerous again to pick up a share.
Rodriguez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Record: 5-2-2-1
Earnings: $522,000
Last Start: Won Wood Memorial (G2)
Last Beyer Speed Figure: 101
The Wood Memorial (G2) winner was scratched out of the Kentucky Derby with a minor foot issue, then his trainer elected to skip the Preakness as well. “I couldn’t prep him like I wanted to (for the Preakness),” Baffert told The Daily Racing Form. “Once he had the foot issue, you got to let those things simmer down. I didn’t have enough time.” After a second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in his stakes debut and a runner up finish in the San Felipe (G2), he shipped east for the Wood. Under jockey Mike Smith the colt took the field gate to wire to win by 3 ½ elngths and earn a career top Beyer Speed Figure of 101.
