Day two of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup features nine G1 races with $30 million in purses, so let’s take a look at Saturday by the numbers.
The highlight of the betting card at Del Mar on Saturday is of course the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), a race that likely to determine Horse of the Year honors. Traditionally run as the last Breeders’ Cup race of the two-day event, the Turf Sprint and Sprint will close out the card this year.
Iron News will have plenty of Breeders’ Cup news, updates, statistics, selections and more leading up to the two-day championship event.
Let’s take a quick look at Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races by the numbers:
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
The betting favorite has fared well in recent years, taking the last four editions including the very popular Codey’s Wish winning the past two years, returning his backers $6.32 in 2022 and just $3.60 last year.
Overall, the betting favorite has won 6 of the last 17 runnings of the Dirt Mile. Cody’s Wish prepped in the Vosburgh (G2) last year and the Forego (G1) in 2022, both races contested in New York.
While Cody’s Wish came from off the pace in his two wins, the four previous winners took the fields gate to wire. Seven of the last dozen winners were horses that showed early speed.
The last winner that prepped in Southern California was Goldencents who won back-to-back in 2013 and 2014. The colt used the Santa Anita Sprint Championship as his final prep each year.
Dirt Mile by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $12.59
Avg. Exacta payoff: $81.31
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 106.6
Betting Favorites All time: 6 for 17
2023 Winner: Cody’s Wish ($3.60)
$2 Exacta: $14.40 $0.50 Trifecta: $16.85
Winner final prep: Won Vosburgh (G2)
Runner up: National Treasure (9-2)
Runner up final prep: 4th Awesome Again (G1)
Click here for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Friday by the Numbers.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
The Euros hold a 13-12 edge over the home team in the Filly & Mare Turf and have won the last five editions. John Gosden saddled Inspiral last year with Frankie Dettori aboard, the filly returning $7.00 to win.
Three-year-old fillies have fared well in recent years, taking four editions in the last eight, all four Euro invaders.
Chad Brown leads all trainers with four victories, is last coming with Sistercharlie in 2018 at Churchill Downs, paying $8.60 to win.
It is tough to win this race on the front end. The Brown trained Dayatthespa was the last gate to wire winner in 2014 at Santa Anita, paying $13.00.
The betting favorite has won six of the 25 runnings, with a 60% ITM. The second choice in the betting has won three times, while the third choice in the wagering has won six times.
F&M Turf by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $16.75
Avg. Exacta payoff: $101.51
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 103.2
Betting Favorites All time: 6 for 25
2023 Winner: Inspiral ($7.00)
$2 Exacta: $29.60 $0.50 Trifecta: $64.70
Winner final prep: Won Sun Chariot (G1)
Runner up: Warm Heart (4-1)
Runner up final prep: Won Prix Vermeille (G1)
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Goodnight Olive won this race in back-to-back years, returning her backers $5.70 In 2022 at Keeneland and last year $4.20 at Santa Anita.
The betting favorite has now on 7 of the 17 races and has been formful over the last five years. We saw back-to-back bombs in 2017 with Bar of Gold ($135.40) and Shamrock Rose ($53.80 in 2018.
Goodnight Olive prepped in the Ballerina both years. In 2021 Ce Ce ran third in the Ballerina, then won the Chillingworth at Santa Anita before scoring in the Filly & Mare Sprint, returning $14.40.
Two preps that have been very productive but not since 2017 are the Presque Isle Masters and the TCA.
We have only seen one winner wire the field, Finest City getting the job done in 2016 paying $19.40.
Jockey Irad Ortiz. Jr has won this race in four of the last seven years.
F&M Sprint by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $23.64
Avg. Exacta payoff: $302.79
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 100.5
Betting Favorites All time: 7 for 17
2023 Winner: Goodnight Olive ($4.20)
$2 Exacta: $71.20 $0.50 Trifecta: $236.65
Winner final prep: 2nd Ballerina (G1)
Runner up: Yuugiri (26-1)
Runner up final prep: Won TCA (G2)
2023 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Replay
Breeders’ Cup Mile
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won the last three editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The streak started in 2021 at Del Mar with Space Blues ($6.20, then Moden Games ($4.76) at Keeneland and last year with Master of the Seas ($8.60).
Master of the Seas had already made two starts in North America and Moden Games won, while Space Blues came straight across the pond making his U.S. debut in his victory.
The last U.S. based trainer to win the Mile was Chad Brown with Uni ($9.20) in 2019. Brown is 1 for 12 with his starters in his career in this race.
The betting favorite has won 14 times in the 40-year history. We have seen some huge upsets, including Order of Australia ($148.40) in 2020, Karakontie ($62.00) in 2014 and Court Vision ($131.60) in 2011.
Stalkers and closers have the edge in running style. The last gate to wire winner in the Mile came all the way back in 1993 when Lure won the Mile for the second time.
Mile by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $25.63
Avg. Exacta payoff: $307.19
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 105.5
Betting Favorites All time: 14 for 40
2023 Winner: Master of the Seas ($8.60)
$2 Exacta: $39.80 $1 Trifecta: $82.95
Winner final prep: 2nd in Turf Mile (G1)
Runner up: Mawj (9-2)
Runner up final prep: Won QEII Cup (G1)
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Trainer Brad Cox got his third Breeders’ Cup Distaff win in the last six years with Idiomatic going gate to wire and returning $5.60 last year. Monomoy Girl was his other winner, the brilliant racemare winning in 2018 and 20210, both at short prices. Jockey Florent Geroux was board all three of the Cox winners.
The betting favorite has won 17 of the 40 runnings of the race including six of the last 13.
Idiomatic was the first wire winner in the Distaff since Royal Delta in 2012 at Santa Anita.
The road to the Distaff was exactly the same the past two years. Both Idiomatic and Malathat prepped by running in the Personal Ensign (G1) and then the Spinster (G1).
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the race twice in the past 9 years, first with Stopcharingmaria ($16.20) in 2015 and in 2022 with Malathat ($7.76), both victories coming at Keeneland.
Distaff by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $16.41
Avg. Exacta payoff: $150.67
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 101.7
Betting Favorites All time: 17 for 40
2023 Winner: Idiomatic ($5.60)
$2 Exacta: $41.60 $0.50 Trifecta: $74.70
Winner final prep: Won Spinster (G1)
Runner up: Randomized (8-1)
Runner up final prep: Won Beldame (G2)
Breeders’ Cup Turf
The Euros have taken four straight runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, with Aiden O’Brien picking up his seventh last year with Auguste Rodin ($7.00). Charlie Appleby won the two previous, with Yibir ($19.00) in 2021 and Rebel’s Romance ($13.92) in 2022.
In the last 12 years the home team has won just three times, with the Dale Romans trained Little Mike ($36.60) in 2012, Main Sequence ($14.40) in 2014 and trained by Graham Motion and the Chad Brown trained Bricks and Mortar (44.00) in 2019.
The betting favorite has won 3 of the last 5 and 12 of 40 overall. Fillies have wo three of the last dozen, all Euro shippers. Three-year-olds have won 3 of the last 12, also all Euros.
Horses that ran in the Arc de Triomphe (G1) in France have performed well, winning the Turf six times since 2005.
Turf by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $15.96
Avg. Exacta payoff: $84.14
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 106.2
Betting Favorites All time: 12 for 40
2023 Winner: Auguste Rodin ($7.00)
$2 Exacta: $25.80 $0.50 Trifecta: $74.95
Winner final prep: Won Irish Champion (G1)
Runner up: Up to the Mark (7-2)
Runner up final prep: Won Turf Mile (G1)
2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Replay
Breeders’ Cup Classic
With an average win price of just $9.01 over the last dozen years, the results of the Breeders’ Cup Classic have been the most logical recently.
Favorite overall have won 12 of 40 editions of the Classic including the last three and 5 of the last 9. Among those was last year’s winner White Abarrio ($7.20) for the Rick Dutrow Jr. barn. Flightline was the shortest price in Classic history, returning just $2.88 in 2022.
Six of the last dozen winners of the Classic won it in gate to wire fashion. There have been four three-year-olds making it to the winner’s circle during that time as well.
Trainer Bob Baffert has won 4 of the last 10 editions, most recently with Authentic ($10.40) in 2020 at Keeneland.
Four of the last seven winners competed in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga including White Abarrio last year.
Classic by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $9.01
Avg. Exacta payoff: $100.37
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 113.3
Betting Favorites All time: 12 for 40
2023 Winner: White Abarrio ($7.20)
$2 Exacta: $179.40 $0.50 Trifecta: $450.90
Winner final prep: Won Whitney (G1)
Runner up: Derma Sotogake (26-1)
Runner up final prep: 6th Kentucky Derby (G1)
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
While the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint favorite has won 5 of the 16 editions, we saw a couple of unlikely winners the past two years. Nobals ($26.00) won last year for trainer Larry Rivelli and the Brad Cox trained Caravel lit up the toteboard in 2022 at Keeneland to the tune of $87.78 and topping a $2 exacta that paid $1,762.54.
We have seen just one Euro shipper get the job done, Glass Slippers ($22.40) winning at Keeneland in 2020.
Peter Miller won the race three consecutive years, 2017 and 2018 with Stormy Liberal and in 2018 with Belvoir Bay.
Wesley Ward won with Golden Pal in 2021 at Del Mar paying $7.00 but is just 1 for 16 in this race.
Turf Sprint by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $28.00
Avg. Exacta payoff: $358.65
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 103.4
Betting Favorites All time: 5 for 16
2023 Winner: Nobals ($26.00)
$2 Exacta: $230.20 $0.50 Trifecta: $558.30
Winner final prep: 9th Alw 119519C
Runner up: Big Invasion (12-1)
Runner up final prep: Won Nearctic (G2)
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
The Bill Mott trained Elite Power won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint the last two years, paying $13.10 in 2022 at Keeneland and $5.40 last year, both with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons.
Elite Power prepped in New York both campaigns, winning the Vosburgh (G2) in 2022 and running second in the Forego (G1) last year.
The betting favorite has won the Sprint in 4 of the last 16 years and overall is 9 for 40. The second choice in the betting has won eight times overall.
We have seen stalkers and closers win the last seven editions of the Sprint. The last wire job was performed by Drefong ($9.90) in 2016 at Santa Anita. Drefong was also the last three-year-old to win the race.
The Forego, Vosburgh and Phoenix have been the most productive preps in recent years.
Sprint by the Digits: (last 12 years)
Avg. Win payoff: $16.48
Avg. Exacta payoff: $115.51
Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 105.7
Betting Favorites All time: 9 for 40
2023 Winner: Elite Power ($5.40)
$2 Exacta: $16.00 $0.50 Trifecta: $46.90
Winner final prep: 2nd Forego (G1)
Runner up: Gunite (3-1)
Runner up final prep: 2nd Parx Dirt Mile
