If you don’t have Friday, April 4, 2025, circled on your calendar, you should! Of course, this is the day that Keeneland opens its gates to the public for its Spring Meet. This is a gorgeous time of year in Kentucky when the beautiful trees and flowers are beginning to bloom and hope springs eternal for all the two-year-olds who will be making their start in the ten or so 2YO Maiden Special Weight races that Keeneland will card.
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Looking back on the past five Spring Meets at Keeneland only yields four years’ worth of data since the 2020 meet was canceled due to COVID-19. However, this analysis still gives us 42 Two-Year-Old Maiden Special Weight races to study with 370 starters, giving us an average field size of 8.8 runners.
Ward Stands Out Among Trainers
When looking at successful trainers, one man stands out – Wesley Ward. To say that he has dominated this meet with his juveniles is an understatement. The conditioners chasing his number of winners are nowhere close as Ward has saddled an incredible 23 of the 42 winners (54.8%). Incredibly, he has started more than one baby in each of the races. In fact, he’s tightened the girth on 51 two-year-olds giving him an average of 1.2 runners in each of these outstanding baby races. The second most number of winners by a trainer is a mere three. That honor is shared between Paul McEntee in 34 starts and John A. Hancock in 32 starts. And there actually have only been two trainers with two winners – John Ennis (24 starts) and Luis Mendez (14 starts). That leaves only nine conditioners with one win each.
Only one of Ward’s winners was sent off at odds greater than 5/2 when somehow the public dismissed one of his precocious babies back in 2023 that scored at 8/1. Only two of his victors have crossed the wire at less than 5/2, but greater than 2/1, and four have won with odds between even money and 2/1. That leaves 16 of his 23 winners that were victorious with odds of 1/1 or less. All told his ROI is $1.98 in these 2YO MSW events.
Other Notable Trainers
If you are looking for trainers with an ROI north of $2.00 who have also won two or more races, the list is short – Luis Mendez is the only one who fits that bill with an ROI of $2.83 to go with his two wins from 14 tries.
Two conditioners that had only started one prior runner in ‘our races’ over the past four years each sent out a winner last April. On 4/7/24, Isreal Acevedo got his picture taken with The Queens M G who returned a whopping $92.74. And Mark Casse got his year rolling with Into Diamonds who scored on the grass and paid his backers $15.24.
Ward is certain to win his share of baby races again this April at Keeneland. We’ll be right there with you sharing information on the most interesting runners and our goal is to provide you with key data on these wonderful two-year-olds to help give you more winners!
Handicapping Two-Year-Old Maidens can be extremely fun and profitable. As you probably have guessed by my pen name, it is my passion and sole focus. I look forward to providing you with additional information on this category of racing right here on Iron Bets Racing. In the mean time, if you’d like to learn more, please consider picking up a copy of my book, ‘Handicapping Two-Year-Old Thoroughbreds: Consistently Pick Winners in 2YO Maiden Special Weight Races’ on Amazon.
