We have an outstanding betting card on Whitney Day at Saratoga, with five graded stakes on the 13-race card highlighted by the $1 million Whitney (G1).
With the scratch of Mindframe a field of nine will go in the Whitney including seven which have earned over $1 million. The Todd Pletcher trained Fierceness, the 2024 Travers (G1) winner is the 9-5 morning line favorite.
Among his foes are 2023 and 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winners White Abarrio and Sierra Leone, Jockey Club Gold Cup (G2) winner Highland Falls, and Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G2) winner Skippylongstocking.
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Betting Saratoga with Michael Dempsey
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The card features four other stakes, the $200,000 Saratoga Special (G2), $750,000 Fourstardave (G1), $750,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1), and $500,000 Test (G1).
The Fourstardave and Whitney are Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races.
There are also five maiden races on the card that could produce a few future stars and are good betting races.
I will try to post selections occasionally throughout the meeting when I have time and I will keep an eye out for any trends that develop over the course of the meeting.
Since the beginning of July at Saratoga we have gone 11 for 23 with our top picks. A $20 win wager on each would have cost $460.00 and returned $771.00 for a profit of $311.00.
Race 8: The Fourstardave
Win for the Money is 0 for 4 since winning the Woodbine Mile (G1) last September but looks capable of turning the tables on a few foes he finished behind in his last couple of outings. Last out in the Kelso (G3) he tracked the early pace from the outside, had to swerve out even farther on the far turn when a foe to his inside stumbled and did not have quite enough punch left late, beaten 2 ¼ lengths. It was his first go off a 5 ½ month break. The outing should serve as a good tightner and his 8-1 morning line looks more than fair.
Johannes makes his first start off the bench for the Yakteem barn, shopping in from the left coast. The son of Nyquist won 5 of 6 starts last year and has earned five straight triple digit Beyers. He has been working sharply for a barn that is 15% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff He looks ready, but his price may end up on the light side.
Race 9: The Saratoga Derby
The Euros get the edge here with Hotazhell getting the call. The colt checked in fifth last out in the Coral Eclipse (G1) at Sandown Park against a solid field. Two back he ran third in the Irish 2000 Guineas (G1) behind Field of Gold, who returned to win the St. James Palace (G1) before a disappointing effort on Wednesday in the Sussex Stakes (G1) at Goodwood. The Harrington trainee makes his third start off the bench.
Tiberius Thunder seems likely to get overlooked here. The colt was fourth last out in the Hampton Court (G3) at Royal Ascot. The winner Trinity College came back to run a game second in the Grand Prix de Paris (G1) at Longchamp while the runner up Tornado Alert came back to win the Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (G1) in Germany. He should outrun his odds.
Race 10: The Test
With Echo Sound likely to be a puny price, let’s go with Look Forward who cuts back from nine furlongs where she ran well in a runner up finish in the Acorn (G1) in the slop earning a career top. The third-place finisher Scottish Lassie exited the Acorn to win the CCA Oaks (G1) and Quickick came out of the race to win the Iowa Oaks in her next start. The barn is 22% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint and she is a perfect 3 for 3 around one turn including a win in the Eight Belles (G2) two back.
Race 11: The Whitney
This is a solid edition of the Whitney, and I am reluctantly picking Sierra Leone despite the likely short price. The colt was off a beat slow last out in the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs and did not get much pace to run at. He came with a good late run to finish second, beaten a length by Mindframe who will scratch out of this race. The Brown trainee ran well over the Spa track last year despite failing to win, then put it all together winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). He needed his comeback race and now looks ready to fire his best in his third start of the year, and second off a three-month break. It looks like he should catch an honest pace and just needs a fair racing surface.
Fierceness came up short in a runner up finish in the Met Mile (G1) last out but that was over a sloppy track going one turn. He looked really good winning the Alysheba (G2) two back at Churchill Downs off a six-month layoff. He has won 3 of his 4 trips over the Spa main track including the Travers (G1) last summer. Will be tough to keep him out of the exacta.
If one of the top two fail to fire perhaps Post Time can land in the exacta at a price. The Russell trainee was second in the Met Mile and third in the Whitney last year. Last out he was an easy winner of the Deputed Testimony at Laurel Park. The runner up Offaly Cool beat optional claimers at Philly in his next start with a 99 Beyer.
