Have you ever decided to dig in and go after a Pick 5 or Pick 6? And after having looked at the first two or three races in the sequence, you turn to the next race and it’s a Two-Year-Old Maiden Special Weight affair with hardly any past performances to study? Instead of simply taking three-fourths of the field on your ticket, much less pressing the ‘All’ button, let me give you some pointers on how to break down this type of event so you can confidently only use a few horses, or possibly even go with a single pick in this race on your horizontal ticket.
Looking at Trainers
The first and most important category that you want to look at are the trainers. Some conditioners excel in this type of race while others have very little success. It’s imperative that you look at the trainers’ strike rate in 2YO MSW races with a focus on the track and meet that you are playing. Many do far better at certain tracks and they often have a higher win rate in certain meets (Spring vs. Fall, for example).
The other trainer statistic that you want to consider is Return on Investment. Again, get very detailed and analyze the conditioner’s ROI at a track and on a meet specific basis.
To go even deeper, study the success of the trainers with First-Time Starters broken out from Non-FTSers. This can make a huge difference as some conditioners rarely win when sending a 2YO for their debut, while others do really well with firsters.
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Looking at Pedigree
Another core component to handicap baby races is pedigree. Many players have a good sense of which sires produce precocious offspring and which ones typically have youngsters that take a few years to develop. However, you can gain an advantage on your peers by fully understanding sire stats specific to 2YO MSW races. If you want to get really detailed, look at a sire’s success with juveniles on the surface that today’s event will take place and also if the stallion e with does better with babies in sprints or routes.
The other half of pedigree analysis is the dam side of the youngster’s bloodline. This is a piece that is often overlooked as it takes a bit more effort to get information on the mare. It is important to understand not only the mare’s race record, with specific attention to her success on the track as a 2YO, but also her prior offspring’s racing success, again with focus on their performance as two-year-olds.
Another component to study is the auction sales history of the runners. Here you are not solely looking for the babies that sold for the highest amount of money at public auction as it is just as important to understand how the young horse sold as compared to others by his/her sire at that same age (weanling, yearling, or two-year-old). I call this ‘Stack Ranking’ within their class.
While all of the above statistical analysis is critically important, it is also imperative that you study the runner’s workouts to determine the athleticism of the horse as he/she performs on the track in the mornings. While the workout times certainly need to be considered, the action of the horse is the most important part in understanding if your horse can run. There are several websites that offer replays of morning works, so it is well worth your time to watch to see how the entrants cover ground while breezing.
Looking at Past Performances
The final core component is the runner’s past performance, if they have any. Don’t get too caught up in what place the horse finished in their prior races; instead look for babies that may have dropped back early and then ran on without being bothered too much by the dirt that was kickbacked in their face. Also, look for runners who may have gone out quickly, but ran out of gas as they may simply may not quite yet have been in good enough shape to carry their speed all the way to the finish line. Young horses often learn how to compete after getting a race or two under their belt. Many times they dramatically improve in their second outing.
Handicapping Two-Year-Old Maidens can be extremely fun and profitable. As you probably have guessed by my pen name, it is my passion and sole focus. I look forward to providing you with additional information on this category of racing right here on Iron Bets Racing. In the mean time, if you’d like to learn more, please consider picking up a copy of my book, ‘Handicapping Two-Year-Old Thoroughbreds: Consistently Pick Winners in 2YO Maiden Special Weight Races’ on Amazon.
