It’s time for the Japan Cup again, this year marking its 44th running, with the 2,400-meter Grade 1 turf event set to get under way this Sunday afternoon (Saturday evening U.S. time), Nov. 24. Fourteen horses are expected to go to the gate.
The international invitational has morphed from an event to bring the world to Japan to one that has helped bring Japan to the world. However, though the race was pivotal in raising Japan’s competitiveness on the world stage, the race itself has lost much of its international flavor. Japan has monopolized the winner’s circle for 18 years straight. Some years the race attracts no runners from abroad. Not this year.
Three competitors have jetted in from abroad and 2024 could be the year the money jets back with them. If it does, it’s going to be a lot of money, as all three candidates are eligible for the incentive bonuses, the top prize of which is an extra $3 million on top of the Japan Cup’s first-place prize of \500 million (over $3.5 million).
Headlining the three from abroad is the Irish-bred, six-time G1 champion Auguste Rodin, whose win of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot in June secured his eligibility for the JC bonuses. France fields Goliath, winner of this year’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and Germany brings this year’s Grosser Preis von Baden champion Fantastic Moon to the table.
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Japan’s team lost last year’s Japan Cup runnerup Liberty Island to the Hong Kong Internationals, but last month’s Tenno Sho champ Do Deuce, 2024 double classic winner Cervinia, 2023 Tenno Sho (Spring) winner Justin Palace, double G1 winner Stars on Earth, and eight others, will go to the gate Sunday gunning to keep the big money at home.
A look at the top contenders:
Do Deuce
The 5-year-old Do Deuce has been running at the top level for his last seven races and, last out, in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), he scooped his second G1 victory from among those seven. He clinched the top prize with a late drive from behind and a final 3-furlong time of 32.5 seconds (the top time of the field by half a second) over the grueling Tokyo stretch. Do Deuce not only marked his fourth career G1 win, he also became only the 7th horse in JRA history to win a Grade 1 event for 4 years in a row. Now he heads into the Japan Cup for his second time. Last year, he finished fourth 5 3/4 lengths off winner Equinox. From among those horses back again this year, only one, Stars on Earth was ahead of him in the ’23 JC, by 3/4 length. Last year, after regular rider Yutaka Take was injured the day of the Tenno Sho (Autumn), Keita Tosaki sat in both the Tenno Sho and the Japan Cup. This year, Take is expected up, with hopes of repeating their winning form over the Tokyo 2,400 in the 2022 Japanese Derby. Do Deuce’s sire, Heart’s Cry, tried three times to land the Japan Cup, scoring a 10-2-10, and missing the win by a mere nose to foreign raider Alkaased in 2005. Do Deuce will be attempting to become the seventh horse since 1984 (when Japan initiated the graded-race system) to go from the Tenno Sho winner’s circle to the Japan Cup’s. Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi, who holds the record amongst current trainers for most appearances in the Japan Cup, has one win of the race, with Cheval Grand in 2017.
Cervinia
Thought to present Do Deuce’s biggest threat is the filly Cervinia, a Harbinger 3-year-old fresh off a win of the filly G1 Shuka Sho. Cervinia added the G1 to her first jewel, the Japanese Oaks, which she won over 2,400 meters at Tokyo with a time 0.3 seconds faster than the winning time of this year’s Japanese Derby. Admittedly, her times are slower than what Do Deuce has clocked, and this will be only her second time up against males, her first against older males. But, Cervinia will enjoy a weight allowance, 4 kg lighter than the top weight of 58. She’ll also have an ace in her pocket with Christophe Lemaire in the saddle. Lemaire has ridden all but one of her six career starts and has been having a tremendous year. He’s way out in front in the jockey rankings, 32 wins ahead of No. 2 Yuga Kawada, and has, since the beginning of September, bagged eight graded wins, including two Grade 1s. Lemaire also ties Take at four for most wins of the Japan Cup. Having won aboard Equinox last year, two in a row would seem to present the harder feat, as a jockey winning the Japan Cup two times in a row has only been achieved once before, by Yasunari Iwata. But there’s more. In the JC’s 44-year-history, only two horses have won the race with a mere six starts behind them and only seven 3-year-olds have won the race period. Only two were fillies. If Cervinia can win, she’ll join ranks with giants Gentildonna (2012) and Almond Eye (2018).
Auguste Rodin
The Ireland-born, Ireland-based, Aidan O’Brien-trained Auguste Rodin is a 4-year-old colt by Deep Impact out of the Galileo mare Rhododendron. On Sunday, he’ll become the first foreign-based Deep Impact progeny to participate in a JRA race. Auguste Rodin comes to the table with an impressive resume that includes six G1 victories (including the Epsom Derby and the Irish Derby). Most recently, he missed his second win in a row of the Grade 1 Irish Champions Stakes (2,000, Leopardstown) when he trailed winner Economics by a neck (Japan’s Shin Emperor followed in third by 3/4 length.). This year, Auguste Rodin has only added one top-level race (the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot) to his previous five scored over the previous 2 years in England, Ireland and the United States (2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf) over distances from 1,400 meters to 2,400. If Auguste Rodin can win, he’ll become only the second Ireland-based runner to do so, after the mare Stanerra in 1983. Aboard should be Ryan Moore, who has won two Japan Cups. Trainer Aidan O’Brien claims the ground in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1, 2,390 meters) at Ascot two starts ago, though officially a “good to firm,” was actually much softer, contributing to his fifth-place finish. O’Brien expects the colt to take well to the fast ground likely at Tokyo Sunday.
Justin Palace
From 12 G1 attempts, both at home and abroad, the 5-year-old Justin Palace has won only one, last year’s Tenno Sho (Spring) over 3,200 meters at Kyoto. However, the son of Deep Impact (who won the JC in 2006) hasn’t strayed too far from the winner’s circle. From his remaining 11 G1 bids, Justin Palace has finished in the top three in four and in fourth place three other times. These include a fourth in this year’s Tenno Sho (Autumn) and a second in last year’s version, which was won in record time. Third in the ’23 Takarazuka Kinen, this year he finished 10th in the same race, but the heavy going worked against him and it was only 3 months after returning from a fourth-place finish in the Dubai Sheema Classic. Fast ground Sunday and a race favoring late speed would stand this fellow well.
Goliath
The German-born, France-based 4-year-old gelding Goliath has raced largely in France and England. This year, he captured the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at the end of July at Ascot and topped not only runnerup Bluestocking, who went on to win the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe 2 months later, but also third-place finisher Rebel’s Romance, who scored the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar on Nov. 2. Auguste Rodin was also in the field of the Ascot G1, finishing fifth of nine runners. Goliath, despite having a rating of 125 in the Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings (which put him in the No. 2 spot), was not, as a gelding, eligible for the Arc. He was aimed at the G1 Preis von Europa at Cologne at the end of September but a foot abscess ruled him out of the competition. Instead, he headed toward Tokyo after acing the Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris at Longchamp on Oct. 20. If Goliath can land the Japan Cup, he will become only the second France-based horse to do so, after Le Glorieux in 1987.
Stars on Earth
Winner of two filly Grade 1s, the 2022 Oka Sho and the Japanese Oaks, Stars on Earth had never missed the top three in the seven consecutive G1s she was given until this year. Early in 2023, she took on the boys at the top for the first time and scored a second in the Osaka Hai, then followed that with a third in the all-female Victoria Mile. Third in last year’s Japan Cup behind superstars Equinox and Liberty Island, she followed that up with a second in the Arima Kinen. Not until this year and an excursion at the end of March to Dubai, did she fail to make the money with an eighth in the Dubai Sheema Classic. The now 5-year-old daughter of Duramente returns for only her second race of the year, with 8 months in between, her longest layoff yet. She’s looking good in work and expected in the saddle is Yuga Kawada, who was partnered with her only once before, for her win of the Oka Sho.
Others of interest are:
Blow the Horn posted 2-1 in the first two G1s of his career this year, but returned after 3 months for the G2 Kyoto Daishoten and shocked as the favorite with a last-place finish. No reason has been determined. In the meantime, his work has been good, and the Takarazuka champ should not be dismissed.
The French-bred Shin Emperor leapt to the graded-stakes level after acing his debut and has remained there, consistently finishing in the top three in five of his next seven starts, including three Grade 1s. He returns from a poor result in the Arc, his first time over heavy going. With a 2-5-3-3-12 in G1 company, victory is surely within reach.
Durezza skidded along under the radar on a 5-race winning streak that ended with a surprise victory in the Grade 1 Kikuka Sho, but he blew the Tenno Sho (Spring) after lugging out unable to give it his best. He returns from the International Stakes at York in August, where he followed fourth-place finisher (later Arc winner) Bluestocking over the line in fifth. He’s two for two at Tokyo.
