OK, I’ll admit it – I’m often times just as guilty as most. Although the trainer and sire are certainly important in the study of two-year-old racing, many people overlook the dam. The main reason for this fact is that it simply takes more work to dig out information on dams. Conversely, data on trainers and sires is much more readily and easily available. And let’s face it – handicappers, as a whole, are lazy. Additionally, the study of mares is not ‘sexy’. This is the good news, however, as it affords those of us who are willing to put in the extra work the opportunity to be one step ahead of our competition. Edges can be a challenge to find in this game, and this is a great example of one.
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What to Look for in Dams
So, what are we looking for in the mares of our juveniles? There are two metrics that I consider the most important to analyze. First, how did the dam herself perform on the racetrack when she was a baby? It is certainly a positive if the mare went on to have a long and solid career on the track, but what I want to see is precocity. Did she win a Maiden Special Weight race at age two, and if so, as a bonus, did she go on to win at the Allowance or Stakes level as a baby? Also, was the MSW score at an upper-echelon track and did she post a solid time (as measured by Equibase Speed Figures)? Lastly, in what month did she score? The earlier the win in her 2YO campaign the better.
Second, have the foals that she’s previously thrown excelled on the track as babies? I look at the race records of the mare’s other foals in very much the same way that I analyze the dam’s performance on the track as laid out above.
One of the challenges in this component of study is that not all of the dams made it to the track in the afternoon as many went unraced and also the two-year-old in question may be the first foal that mama has thrown. Neither are necessarily bad things, but in either case, they create a situation where there simply is no data to consider.
The Broodmare Sire
Some of you may be asking, ‘So, what about the Broodmare Sire? Is he important to your study?’ Although the answer is ‘yes’ he’s important, from what my research has uncovered is the fact that I don’t see a significant difference in the numbers of successful Broodmare Sires vs. those that are average in the production of winning 2YO MSWs. Hence, it can be difficult to add to much to the equation simply on the determination of who the Broodmare sire is.
However, what I do find important and useful to know is how the data on the ‘nicks’ (combination of Sire and Broodmare Sire) compare when looking at them exclusively through the lens of 2YO MSW performance. The main challenge of looking at these ‘nicks’, is that almost always the quantity of data for each specific ‘nick’ is quite small. We are working to attempt to find a way to create similar, larger sample sizes that make sense and are representative of our study, but the fact is that the data pool is only as deep as it is.
Bottom line, don’t be lazy and always seek information from people who go the extra mile to provide you with deep and thorough data. The dam is absolutely important – make certain to find all of the pertinent information on the her and always bake it into your analysis of 2YO MSW races.
Thank you – and please hold me to my word!
Handicapping Two-Year-Old Maidens can be extremely fun and profitable. As you probably have guessed by my pen name, it is my passion and sole focus. I look forward to providing you with additional information on this category of racing right here on Iron Bets Racing. In the mean time, if you’d like to learn more, please consider picking up a copy of my book, ‘Handicapping Two-Year-Old Thoroughbreds: Consistently Pick Winners in 2YO Maiden Special Weight Races’ on Amazon.
