Closing Day. It’s never fun, but the ‘Ward Factor’ always makes covering Keeneland a bit challenging in the spring. As I’ve said before, I don’t feel like I’m adding value when I pick his runners, but if you don’t have the winner, you are having to rip up your ticket. Today’s event is again on the turf over 5 ½ furlongs. This one is for the ladies; a full complement of 16 has been entered, but the track only holds 12. It’s a solid field, so let’s dig right in…
Thoughts on: Keeneland – Race 2 for Friday by The 2YO EdgeMan
#2 Nanina (7/2)
This German-bred filly comes from the Brad Cox barn (0/1) and is sired by No Nay Never (7/51, 13.7%). Her unraced mama has thrown three other foals of racing age, and all show that they are unraced, however, they may have started across the pond. Stonestreet Stables gave $389,960 for this gal as a yearling in October 2024. Payson Park Training Center has been the site of all five of her works, with one covering a half mile on the grass. Flavien Prat is Brad’s choice to pilot her.
#8 Ganymede (2/1)
The Maestro (23/51, 45.1%) attempts to get yet another winner in at this level before this meet ends with this Omaha Beach (15.3%) filly. Her winless mare, bred in Ireland, has produced one other foal of racing age, and that one has banked over $200K from only a single score in 12 tries. $210K was the pricetag for today’s runner when she was a yearling. Ward started her with two works down in Florida before shipping her up to Keeneland for three drills. Her next-to-last spin was a strong three panel bullet that was completed in 36 seconds flat from the gate (1/47). Rosario will manage the reins.
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#10 Diva Calling (8/1)
Dialed In (9.7%) is this gal’s papa, and her mama is by Tale of Ekati. She won once from 11 starts and has produced three other foals of racing age, all winless. The bidding ended at $75,000 on her last year as a yearling. Trainer George Weaver (0/2, but won yesterday) has put four works into her, two at three poles and two at a half mile, all at Palm Beach Downs. Johnny V. will get the leg up.
#11 I Think I Can (6/1)
The combo of Repole and Pletcher (send out this Lope de Vega (IRE) filly (5/25, 20.0%) who comes by way of an Irish mare by Australian-bred Starspangledbanner. The dam shows that she never run, and this is her first foal. The hammer fell at $119,069 on this gal as a yearling. Todd has found time for seven workouts for her, all at Palm Beach Downs, with her last four covering a half mile (24 total furlongs). Her last morning drill was on the turf. Not surprisingly, Irad has been named as the rider.
My Pick
If I try to beat Ward, he wins. If I pick him, he loses; that’s the dilemma. I not only need a winner, but I need a reasonable price to end the meet, so my pick is #11 I Think I Can. Lope de Vega babies are tough on the lawn, and her dam certainly brings additional grass ability to her, too. Although I wish she had breezed on the KEE oval, I do like the fact that she’s got 24 furlongs (three miles) under her and has worked once on the turf.
Handicapping Two-Year-Old Maidens can be extremely fun and profitable. As you probably have guessed by my pen name, it is my passion and sole focus. I look forward to providing you with additional information on this category of racing right here on Iron Bets Racing. In the mean time, if you’d like to learn more, please consider picking up a copy of my book, ‘Handicapping Two-Year-Old Thoroughbreds: Consistently Pick Winners in 2YO Maiden Special Weight Races’ on Amazon.
