This one is the first five and a half furlong event on the grass this spring, and it is open to both fillies and colts/geldings, and it drew the max. However, only 12 will head to the starting gate. Only one filly steps forward to challenge the boys. No First-Crop sires are represented.
Keeneland Picks for Race 2 for Thursday. By The 2YO EdgeMan
#5 Twirling Ridge (10/1)
One of two in the main field that has raced before, having previously run on 4/13/25. John A. Hancock (3/32, 9.4%) trains this son of Twirling Candy (18.2%). He is out of an Eskendereya mare that was winless in 12 tries. She’s thrown four other foals of racing age, two won as 2YOs in a MSW race, one as a First-Time starter, and one that scored on his second outing. Today’s runner RNAed as a yearling for $30,000.
#7 Raffinato (3/1)
Bred in Great Britain, this is the lone filly in the main draw. She’s sired by the Irish sire, Blue Point, and comes from an unraced Irish-bred mare who has two other foals of racing age. Brad Cox (0/1) is the conditioner for Stonestreet Stables, who plunked down $292,835 (18/64) for this gal as a yearling in 2024. She’s breezed five times at Payson Park Training Center, one of those efforts covered a half mile. Flavien Prat will grab the reins.
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#8 Tough Critic (6/1)
George Weaver (0/2) will cinch the saddle for Dew Sweepers, LLC, who purchased this Caravaggio colt for $47,000 last year as a yearling. Her Irish-bred dam, from Invincible Spirit, was 0 for 3 on the track, and she’s tossed three other foals of racing age. All four of his works have been at Palm Beach Downs, with the last two covering four panels. Johnny V has received the call to climb aboard.
#10 Longshoreman (8/5)
You likely know by looking at his Morning Line odds that this colt comes from ‘The Maestro’s’ barn (23/51, 45.1%) He’s another that is by Twirling Candy (18.2%), and his dam scored back in 2019 as a baby here at Keeneland in the spring as a FTSer, earning an amazing 104 Equibase Speed Figure. She has tossed two other foals of racing age. This guy hammered for $260K last year as a yearling (13/86).
He worked once at Turfway in late February before Wes shipped him to Keeneland, where he’s been out on six mornings. On 3/30/25, he went three panels from the gate in 34.8 seconds (3/10), and his last was the same distance – 35.8 (3/23). Irad Ortiz, Jr. will get the leg up.
Note: Wes Ward also has #15 Daphne Blue, who is on the AE list.
My Pick
Gosh, I hate to do it, but I’ve got to go with W2 again. #10 Longshoreman is my pick. Ward’s runner came up short yesterday, but I don’t see him losing two days in a row, especially with this one being contested on the turf. This guy’s mom was ultra precocious, and his dad hits at a high rate with babies. Additionally, his works have been spectacular. I expect Cox’s filly, #7, will take a good chunk of the money, so maybe we’ll get a fair price.
Handicapping Two-Year-Old Maidens can be extremely fun and profitable. As you probably have guessed by my pen name, it is my passion and sole focus. I look forward to providing you with additional information on this category of racing right here on Iron Bets Racing. In the mean time, if you’d like to learn more, please consider picking up a copy of my book, ‘Handicapping Two-Year-Old Thoroughbreds: Consistently Pick Winners in 2YO Maiden Special Weight Races’ on Amazon.
