Please hang in there with me as I first present some statistics. I promise to pull everything together at the end by utilizing these stats to make my ultimate point and give you another advantage when handicapping two-year-old MSW races.
Foal Crop Falling
We all know that the foal crop is falling in the United States and Canada. For this study, I used records from The Jockey Club to examine the four years of foal crops from 2019 through 2022. I picked these years because they equate to the two-year-old crop of 2021 through 2024.
The total foal crop of 2019 in the U.S. was 19,134 and it amounted to 1,180 in Canada for a total of 20,314. By 2022 it had fallen to an estimated total of 18,375 (US = 17,300 and Canada = 1,075) for an overall dip of 9.5%. The aggregate foal crop for both countries for these four years is 77,187.
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Two Year Old Maiden Special Weight Races on Rise
Interestingly, the number of 2YO Maiden Special Weight races has increased in North America (all U.S. tracks, plus Woodbine in Canada) from 1,217 in 2021 to 1,366 in 2024 (up 12.2%). Additionally, the quantity of ‘top-class’ 2YO MSW races (those with a purse of $60,000 or more) has gone from 551 to 640 in that same period (an increase of 16.2%). From an aggregate perspective, the number of 2YO MSW races totaled 5,219 with only 2,441 of them having a purse of $60,000 or more.
The math above tells us that during the past four years, only 6.8% of the babies that were foaled from 2019 through 2022 won a two-year-old Maiden Special Weight race in the U.S. or at Woodbine. Further, a mere 3.2% of the juveniles from these crops went on to capture a ‘top-class’ 2YO MSW event (as defined above).
By now, you may be saying, ‘OK, great, but get to your point’. Alright, my point is that when analyzing dams it is critical to keep in mind that the vast majority will have not won as a juvenile at the MSW level and most will not have thrown a foal that went on to win at this level. If the dam did buck the odds and win one of these races (especially an event that carried a purse of $60,000+), or perhaps produced a baby (or multiple babies) that won at
this level, you definitely need to move her offspring up in your handicapping when they compete in our wonderful baby races.
Handicapping Two-Year-Old Maidens can be extremely fun and profitable. As you probably have guessed by my pen name, it is my passion and sole focus. I look forward to providing you with additional information on this category of racing right here on Iron Bets Racing. In the mean time, if you’d like to learn more, please consider picking up a copy of my book, ‘Handicapping Two-Year-Old Thoroughbreds: Consistently Pick Winners in 2YO Maiden Special Weight Races’ on Amazon.
