The 2025 Saratoga meeting gets underway on Thursday so I thought I would list some of the trainers to watch as the racing action kicks off.
The obvious trainers to watch of course are Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Mike Maker and Linda Rice, but there are a few trainers that will fly under the radar and may end up offering more bang for the buck. Brown ran away with the trainers’ title last year with 45 wins, with Pletcher and Maker each winning 22 races to tie for second. Rice tallied 18 wins, followed by Bill Mott and Mark Casse with 15 each.
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Let’s take a look at several trainers that likely won’t be near the top of the trainer standings but may offer some betting value:
Ray Handal
Handal had a breakout summer at Saratoga in 2024, winning with 8 of 38 starters (21%) with a flat bet profit. That was an improvement over his 4 for 40 mark in 2023 and 4 for 37 in 2022.
Last year Handal found success on turf, with 5 of his 8 winners coming on the green. Four of his winners were in maiden races. Going back three years 7 of his 16 winners were in maiden races. His average payoff of his winners going back three summers is $17.04.
He won a race last week at the Spa during the 4th of July Racing Festival with Brigade Commander on turf.
The barn has one horse entered on Friday.
Saffie Joseph
When Joseph first started shipping to New York he was nearly an autotoss for me. Then in 2022 he had a solid Spa meet, winning six races from 35 starters. Fading him was the play in 2023 as he went just 3 for 21 with one second.
But last year he lit it up at the Spa, going 11 for 35 for a flat bet profit, his average winning price checking in at $16.38.
Over the past three years 15 of his 20 winners were on dirt. He is 2 for 3 with first timers. He has won with 4 of his 7 juvenile starters.
His biggest winner last summer was with The Queen M G who won the Schuylerville paying $91.00. Bustin Bullet went gate to wire on turf against state bred Alw-1 foes and paid $24.40.
Saffie is dangerous with turf sprinters, winning with 5 of his last 12 with a flat bet profit.
The trainer has three entered on Thursday and six on Saturday, so we are looking for him to get off to a quick start at the meet.
Phil Bauer
Bauer has shown a flat bet profit in each of the last three Spa meets, last summer going 6 for 17 with four seconds. He won on Opening Day with Warrior Johnny paying $21.00, the gelding previously running at Churchill Downs. All six of his winners were on dirt, four sprints.
In 2023, Bauer lost with his first 10 starters, then finished off the meet going 5 for 11. In 2022 he won with 6 of his 13 starters. 16 of his 17 winners going back three years were on the main track. Six of 17 winners going back three years have been with maidens, one a first timer. That debut winner was Jonathan’s Way, who paid $6.40 and returned to win the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs in his next start.
Bauer has just one horse entered through Saturday and that is at Ellis Park. C’mon Phil, we miss you!
Bruce Levine
Levine tends to fly under the radar but has shown a flat bet profit in each of the last two summer meets. He went 4 for 26 last year with an average payoff of $16.50 and 50% of his starters finishing in the money. In 2023 he went 3 for 15, 53% ITM and an average win mutuel of $18.00.
He won with two maidens last summer including first timer Brown Eyed Cat ($7.90). He saddled Bonne Chance in 2023, who won his debut paying $31.20.
All 12 of his winners going back three years have been on dirt and five of those were in the maiden ranks. Three of his winners were coming back off a 90+ layoff.
The barn has two entered on Friday and one on Saturday.
John Ortiz
Ortiz was 3 for 7 in 2023 which got my attention, and he came back even stronger last summer going 6 for 12. That is a combined 9 for 19 (47%) with an average win payoff of $16.09.
Of his six winners, two were in the maiden ranks. Reining Flowers ($30.80) was making her third career start and Quietside ($9.50) was making her debut.
The barn has won three stakes over the past three years, taking the Prioress (G3) here last meet with Brightwork ($7.10) who was coming back off a 10-month layoff.
The barn has one entered on Saturday.
Al Stall
This barn has quietly racked up a nice ROI over the past three years despite going just 1 for 12 in 2023. Stall bounced back by going 5 for 12 last year with one runner up finish.
Three of his winners last summer were with maidens. Banned for Life ($8.70) was making his sixth career start and shipped in from Churchill Downs. Over and Ollie ($9.30) broke his maiden on turf, again his sixth career outing and coming in from Kentucky. Strong State broke her maiden in her second career start off a runner up finish at Churchill Downs in his unveiling.
Of his 10 wins dating back three summers six have been on dirt and four on turf. While he has four maiden wins, he is just 1 for 10 with first timers.
The barn has two in on Saturday.
Trainer Notes
James Ferraro owned the worst record at the 2024 meet going 0 for 35…Chris Engelhart was 0 for 28…Going back three meets Mike Micelli and Ron Moquett were each 0 for 26…Of the top 10 trainers in wins at last year’s meet, Chad Brown, Mark Casse, Brad Cox, and Saffie Joseph managed a flat bet profit…Casse won at a 28% clip last year with a flat bet profit and looks primed for another solid meet. He was just 3 for 35 in 2023…Christophe Clement had a subpar meet last year winning at a 12% clip after winning at a 22% rate in 2023. With his passing, his son Miguel has taken over and I am expecting to see a bounce back year for the barn…Brad Cox in general tends to get overbet but here at the Spa over the past three summers he has hit at a 26% clip and is showing a flat bet profit. Of his 39 wins 14 have come in the maiden ranks…
Cherie DeVaux was 5 for 36 (14%) here last year but had 10 seconds and 7 thirds for a 61% ITM%…Six of her 10 wins in the last three years have been on turf…Mike Maker had a solid meet last year, with 22 wins (17%). Over the past three seasons Maker wins equally on turf and dirt, has 14 maiden wins, four stakes wins, but his ROI comes up short every summer…Bill Mott falls into that same category, consistently winning at about a 14% clip, has won 13 stakes, 19 maiden races, good on turf and dirt, but finding value can be tough, 19 of his winners 5-2 or less…Wesley Ward is known for his juveniles at short prices, but over the past three seasons has an overall +ROI, and note he has won with 4 of 6 dirt routers. He is just 1 for his last 13 with first time starters…
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