Travers Day is here and while the marquee race of the summer at Saratoga drew a compact field of five, the 14-race card is one of the best of the meet betting wise.
The stars are out including Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Sovereignty and reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna.
The H. Allen Jerkens drew a competitive field of eight while the Ballerina (G1) drew nine, and 11 entered the Forego (G1).
Three of the races are Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races. The Forego (Dirt Mile), Ballerina (Filly & Mare Sprint) and the Personal Ensign (Distaff).
The day kicks off with really good betting races before we get to the stakes action. The early Pick 5 will be a challenge.
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Betting Saratoga with Michael Dempsey
Michael Dempsey is the co-founder and Chief Operating Officer at Iron Bets. A longtime degenerate horseplayer, Michael wrote a daily betting column for Vegas Insider for 15 years, was a featured columnist at Bleacher Report, the horse racing guru at Odds Shark, handicapper at Trackmaster/Equibase and founder and Editor-in-Chief at Turf ‘n’ Sport. Contact Michael by clicking here.
We have a pair of $10 Money Back Specials today, the Ballerina and Forego.
Since the beginning of July at Saratoga we have gone 15 for 32 with our top picks. A $20 win wager on each would have cost $640.00 and returned $1,066.00 for a profit of $426.00.
Let’s take a look at today’s stakes action from Saratoga:
Race 7 The Lake Placid G2
This race drew just six but it is an evenly matched group with the edge going to Reining Flowers. The Ortiz filly came up just a neck and a nose short in a third-place finish in the Lake George (G3) last out here on July 26. Two back she was fourth on yielding footing in the Penn Oaks behind repeat winner Laurelin who won the Saratoga Oaks (G2) next out. The runner up Candy Quest also won next out, taking the Ontario Colleen (G3) at Woodbine. She looks primed for a top effort here for Ortiz who has been quiet at the meeting after going 9 for 19 here combined over the past two Spa meets.
Play With Fire earned a career top in a solid second in the Wild Applause last out and May Day Ready makes her third start off the bench and was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) last year.
Race 9 The Personal Ensign G1
Raging Sea has been the beaten chalk in her last two starts and put in subpar efforts in both. This gal won the Shuvee (G2) and this race last year and willing to give her one more look to get on track here as she may end up a fair price. She is going to get plenty of pace in front of her and Prat sticks.
Thorpedo Anna has a pair of wins over the main track here and her loss here was a career best in the Travers where she lost by just a head to Fierceness. She rebounded off an awful effort in the La Troien (G1) to win the Fleur de Lis (G2) in her most recent outing. She has won 11 of 14 in her career, but figures to be south of her 6-5 morning line.
Race 10 The H. Allen Jerkens Memorial G1
Verifire gets the class test today after a smart looking win in the Maxfield last out in his stakes debut. The colt drew off to win by 2 ¾ lengths over Smoken Wicked who came back to win the Amsterdam (G2) in his next start by 5 ¾ lengths with a 101 Beyer. The fourth-place finisher Retribution came back to win a stake at Parx next out. The $1 million Ocala purchase looks primed for a career top effort here.
Cox also sends out Patch Adams who won the Woody Stephens (G1) in the mud over the main track here in June. Two came out of that race to win stakes next out. After coming up short going two turns trying the Triple Crown Trail the barn has done the right thing, cutting him back to sprints.
Race 11 The Ballerina G1
Brightwork is going to be a generous price in this spot for the Ortiz barn. The filly ran a decent fourth off the bench two back and then misfired last out in the Chicago (G2) at Churchill Downs that was a decent race that produced a next out stakes winner and two that came back run second in stakes. The filly is perfect in her three trips over the Spa main track including winning the Prioress (G3) here last summer off the bench.
Halina’s Forte was an upset winner of the Honorable Miss (G2) here in the slop at 24-1 last out for the Bauer barn that is live here every summer. She matched her career top and now makes her third start of her current form cycle. Decent value if she goes off near her 10-1 morning line.
Race 12 The Forego G1
Book ‘em Danno overcame a less than clean start to win the Vanderbilt (G2) last out with a career top speed fig going six furlongs over the main track here. He won the True North (G2) two back going 6 ½ in the slop. He is a three-time winner at seven panels and while it is tough to take the chalk in a large field here, this guy looks ultra tough.
Bishops Bay may end up offering decent value The Cox trainee cuts back from a mile where he caught off tracks in his last pair of outings. He has won four in a row and 5 of 6 with the lone loss by a neck back in January. In his win in the Salvatore Mile (G3), the third-place finisher Surface to Air came back to win the Monmouth Cup (G3) and Iselin (G3) in his next two outings.
Race 13 The Travers G1
Sovereignty faces just four foes here and is going to be tough to beat at a puny price, making this not much of a race to bet on. The other four do all have some early zip so that could set things up for an interesting pace duel. That should only set things up for the chalk. Strategic Focus adds blinkers and appears to have more upside than these. I might add him to a few of my P4 and P5 tickets.
