2025 Breeders’ Cup Saturday by the Numbers

Let’s take a quick look at Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races by the numbers:

$1 Million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

The Dirt Mile turned chalky from 2020 to 2023, but Full Serrano closed out the 2024 Breeders’ Cup with a $28.80 upset victory for trainer John Sadler and topping a $2 exacta that paid $200.60.

Full Serrano was the first Dirt Mile winner to prep in Southern California since Goldencents won back-to-back in 2013 and 2014. That colt used the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) as his final prep each year.

Horses on or prompting the pace have fared well in the Dirt Mile in recent years, winning five of the last seven editions.

The seven furlong Forego and Vosburgh in New York have been key preps in recent years.

Dirt Mile by the Digits: (last 13 years)

Avg. Win payoff: $13.84

Avg. Exacta payoff: $90.48

Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 106.5

Betting Favorites All time: 6 for 18

2024 Winner: Full Serrano ($28.80)

$2 Exacta: $200.60 $0.50 Trifecta: $261.00

Winner final prep: 2^nd Pacific Classic (G1)

Runner up: Post Time (7-1)

Runner up final prep: Won Polynesian Stakes

Click here for 2025 Breeders’ Cup Friday by the Numbers.

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

With the victory by Moira ($13.60) last year for trainer Kevin Attard, the Euros and North American based runners have each won this race 13 times. The previous five winners had their final preps in the UK, France, Japan, France, and UK.

Chad Brown leads all trainers with four victories, his last coming with Sistercharlie in 2018 at Churchill Downs, paying $8.60 to win.

It is tough to win this race on the front end. The Brown trained Dayatthespa was the last gate to wire winner in 2014 at Santa Anita, paying $13.00.

The betting favorite has won 6 of the 26 editions of the race but just once in the last 11 years, Inspiral getting the job done as the favorite in 2023 returning her backers $7.00.

The Prix de l’Opera (G1) in France has produced three of the last eight winners of this race. Three-year-old fillies have fared well in this race in recent years, taking four of the last nine runnings, each of that quartet Euro shippers.

F&M Turf by the Digits: (last 13 years)

Avg. Win payoff: $16.51

Avg. Exacta payoff: $97.52

Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 103

Betting Favorites All time: 6 for 26

2024 Winner: Moira ($13.60)

$2 Exacta: $49.60 $0.50 Trifecta: $107.40

Winner final prep: 2^nd E.P. Tayor (G1)

Runner up: Cinderella’s Dream (5-2)

Runner up final prep: Won Saratoga Oaks Inv. (G2)

$1 Million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

After Goodnight Olive won back-to-back in 2022 and 2023 paying a miniscule $5.70 and $4.20, we saw a longshot last year. Soul of an Angel pulled off the upset paying $41.60 with an off the pace win.

In fact, it has been very tough to win this race up front. The lone winner to do so was Finest City ($19.40) at Santa Anita in 2016. She prepped at Gulfstream Park, winning the Princess Rooney (G3).

Two preps that have been very productive but not since 2017 are the Presque Isle Masters (G2) and the TCA (G1). Goodnight Olive used the Ballerina (G1) as her final prep in her two wins.

Jockey Irad Ortiz. Jr has won this race in four of the last eight years including bombers Bar of Gold ($145.40) in 2017 and Shamrock Rose ($53.80) in 2018.

F&M Sprint by the Digits: (last 13 years)

Avg. Win payoff: $25.02

Avg. Exacta payoff: $295.87

Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 100.4

Betting Favorites All time: 7 for 18

2024 Winner: Soul of an Angel ($41.60)

$2 Exacta: $212.80 $0.50 Trifecta: $721.80

Winner final prep: Won Princess Rooney (G3)

Runner up: Society (7-2)

Runner up final prep: Won Ballerina Hcp (G1)

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Mile

Trainer Cherie DeVaux scored one for the home team last year with More Than Looks ($15.80), ending a three race win streak in this race by Charlie Appleby.

Appleby’s streak started in 2021 at Del Mar with Space Blues ($6.20), then Modern Games ($4.76) at Keeneland and in 2023 with Master of the Seas ($8.60) at Santa Anita.

Master of the Seas had already made two starts in North America and Modern Games one, while Space Blues came straight across the pond making his U.S. debut in his victory.

The home team holds the edge over the Euros in this race with 23 winners to 18. The betting favorite is 14 for 41 in the race and note the favorite has only run second four times and third three times. The second choice in the betting has won the Mile eight times.

Stalkers and closers have a huge edge in running style. The last gate to wire winner in the Mile came all the way back in 1993 when Lure won the Mile for the second time.

We have seen a dozen three-year-olds win the Mile, most of those Euro shippers. Key preps to look at include the Woodbine Mile, Shadwell Mile, the Prix de la Foret and the Queen Elizabeth II.

Mile by the Digits: (last 13 years)

Avg. Win payoff: $24.58

Avg. Exacta payoff: $290.97

Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 105.5

Betting Favorites All time: 14 for 41

2024 Winner: More Than Looks ($15.80)

$2 Exacta: $96.40 $0.50 Trifecta: $123.50

Winner final prep: 2nd in Turf Mile (G1)

Runner up: Johannes (9-2)

Runner up final prep: Won City of Hope Mile (G2)

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Thorpedo Anna got the job done as the chalk last year paying $2.80. She was the seventh favorite to win in the last 14 years. There have been 18 betting favorites win in the 41 editions of the race.

Trainer Brad Cox had won three of the six previous runnings of the Distaff. Trainer Brad Cox got his third Breeders’ Cup Distaff win in the last six years with Idiomatic going gate to wire and returning $5.60 in 2023. Monomoy Girl was his other winner, the brilliant racemare winning in 2018 and 2020, both at short prices. Jockey Florent Geroux was aboard all three of the Cox winners.

The road to the Distaff was exactly the same in 2022 and 2023. Both Idiomatic and Malathat prepped by running in the Personal Ensign (G1) and then the Spinster (G1).

Last year Thorpedo Anna was a three-year-old and she prepped by a tough head loss in the Travers (G1) followed by a victory in the Cotillion (G1).

While Idiomatic and Thorpedo Anna both were up front early, the previous 10 winners of the Distaff came from off the pace.

A dozen three-year-olds have won the Distaff. Since 2016 we have seen a pair of six-year-olds and four five-year-olds take down the top prize in the Distaff.

Distaff by the Digits: (last 13 years)

Avg. Win payoff: $15.37

Avg. Exacta payoff: $139.68

Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 101.5

Betting Favorites All time: 18 for 41

2024 Winner: Thorpedo Anna ($2.80)

$2 Exacta: $7.80 $0.50 Trifecta: $4.65

Winner final prep: Won Cotillion (G1)

Runner up: Raging Sea (4-1)

Runner up final prep: Won Beldame (G2)

The $5 Million Breeders’ Cup Turf

The Euros have taken five straight runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Turf with Charlie Appleby winning three, with Yibir ($19.00) in 2021 and Rebel’s Romance in 2022 and 2024 paying $13.92 and $5.80.

In the last 13 years the home team has won just three times, with the Dale Romans trained Little Mike ($36.60) in 2012, Main Sequence ($14.40) in 2014 and trained by Graham Motion and the Chad Brown trained Bricks and Mortar (44.00) in 2019.

The betting favorite has won 4 of the last 6 and 13 of 41 overall. Fillies have won three of the last 10, all Euro shippers. Three-year-olds have won 4 of the last 12, also all Euros.

Horses that ran in the Arc de Triomphe (G1) in France have performed well, winning the Turf six times since 2005.

Just one of the last dozen winners won by being on the lead, Highland Reel wiring the field in 2016 paying $9.60 for Aiden O’Brien, who has won the Turf six times.

Horses with outside posts have fared pretty well. Posts 11 through 13 have produced a combined nine winners.

Turf by the Digits: (last 13 years)

Avg. Win payoff: $15.18

Avg. Exacta payoff: $85.94

Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 106.2

Betting Favorites All time: 13 for 41

2024 Winner: Rebel’s Romance ($5.80)

$2 Exacta: $107.80 $0.50 Trifecta: $163.25

Winner final prep: Won Preis von Europa (G1)

Runner up: Rousham Park (22-1)

Runner up final prep: 10^th Mainichi Okan (G2)

$7 Million Breeders’ Cup Classic

The Classic has produced the most logical results of any of the Breeders’ Cup race over the last decade. Sierra Leone paid $15.80 last year as the fourth choice and that was the highest winning payoff since Fort Larned paid $20.80 back in 2012.

The betting favorite has finished first or second in eight of the last 10 editions of the Classic. The favorite has won 12 times and run second 11 times in the 41-year history of the race.

Six of the last 13 winners were frontrunners. Three-year-olds have fared well over the time period as well, taking this race five times including last year.

Pay extra attention to horses that ran in the Whitney, Woodward, Pacific Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Travers. Note that since 2010, the Classic winner made at least one start in New York among their last two preps 13 times.

Classic by the Digits: (last 13 years)

Avg. Win payoff: $9.53

Avg. Exacta payoff: $97.23

Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 113.2

Betting Favorites All time: 12 for 41

2024 Winner: Sierra Leone ($15.80)

$2 Exacta: $59.60 $0.50 Trifecta: $65.60

Winner final prep: 3^rd Travers Stakes (G1)

Runner up: Fierceness (5-2)

Runner up final prep: Won Travers Stakes (G1)

$1 Million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

While the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint favorite has won 5 of the 17 editions, we saw unlikely winners the past three years. Last year Starlust lit up the toteboard at $69.20 and topped a $2 exacta that paid $796.60. Nobals ($26.00) won in 2023 for trainer Larry Rivelli and the Brad Cox trained Caravel was the upset winner in 2022 at Keeneland to the tune of $87.78 and topping a $2 exacta that paid $1,762.54.

Last year’s winner was just the second Euro invader to win. The first was Glass Slippers ($22.40) winning at Keeneland in 2020.

Peter Miller won the race three consecutive years, 2017 and 2018 with Stormy Liberal and in 2019 with Belvoir Bay.

Wesley Ward won with Golden Pal in 2021 at Del Mar paying $7.00 but is just 1 for 16 in this race. 

Of the 17 editions, we have seen speed win six times and stalkers and closers winning 11 times. The betting favorite has won just once in the last eight years. The second favorite in the betting is 0 for 17 which has helped make the exacta pay off big,

Turf Sprint by the Digits: (last 13 years)

Avg. Win payoff: $36.18

Avg. Exacta payoff: $392.35

Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 103.3

Betting Favorites All time: 5 for 17

2024 Winner: Starlust ($69.20)

$2 Exacta: $696.60 $0.50 Trifecta: $1,623.30

Winner final prep: 9th Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp (G1)

Runner up: Motorious (12-1)

Runner up final prep: Won Green Flash Hcp (G3)

$2 Million Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. won this race four years in a row from 2020 to 2023, with John Velazquez ending the streak last year when he booted home Straight No Chaser paying $14.20.

We have seen stalkers and closers win the last eight editions of the Sprint. The last wire job was performed by Drefong ($9.90) in 2016 at Santa Anita. Drefong was also the last three-year-old to win the race.

The Forego, Vosburgh, Santa Anita Sprint Championship and Phoenix have been the most productive preps in recent years.

The betting favorite has only won this race once in the last nine years and nine times overall in 41 years. The second choice has won the race eight times.

Horses with a seven-furlong prep among their last two starts won five years in a row from 2019 to 2023, while last year’s winner Straight No Chaser came in off back-to-back six-furlong races. The last six winners had at least one New York race among their last two preps.

Sprint by the Digits: (last 13 years)

Avg. Win payoff: $16.30

Avg. Exacta payoff: $130.57

Avg. Beyer Speed Figure: 105.5

Betting Favorites All time: 9 for 41

2024 Winner: Straight No Chaser ($14.20)

$2 Exacta: $331.20 $0.50 Trifecta: $433.45

Winner final prep: Won Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2)

Runner up: Bentornato (28-1)

Runner up final prep: Won Gallant Bob (G2)