2025 Breeders’ Cup Selections and Analysis

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

#3 Vahva               

Grade
A

M Line
12-1

Fair Odds
8-1

Vahva is going to be a decent price here in a wide open race. Last out the mare pressed the early pace from the outside between foes around the far turn and finished gamely in a runner up finish in the TCA (G2) at Keeneland as the favorite. Two back she was second in the Pink Ribbon going two turns at Chuck Town. This gal is a G1 winner at seven furlongs and whole she came up short in this race last year, worth another look. The TCA used to be a key prep for this. She loves seven furlongs and is going to get overlooked here.

#6 Sweet Azteca   

Grade
A

M Line
2-1

Fair Odds
5-2

Sweet Azteca is a win machine, taking 7 of 9 starts in her career. She has earned four triple digit Beyers in her last six starts and has won both of her starts over the Del Mar main track. She has no starts at seven furlongs but has shown she can handle 6 1/2. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and looks primed for a top effort third off the bench for Baltas.

#8 Hope Road        

Grade
B

M Line
4-1

Fair Odds
9-2

Hope Road tracked the early pace and after acting up a bit at the gate, stalked the early pace took command and drew clear to win the Ballerina (G1) at the Spa last out. It was her third triple digit Beyer in her last four starts. The Ballerina is a key prep, producing the winner in three of the last four years. She did not beat a very strong group however, five coming out of that race to run back with a couple of thirds the best finishes.

#4 Tamara             

Grade
C

M Line
7-2

Fair Odds
9-2

Tamara came back off nearly a year on the bench with a sharp win in the Chillingworth (G3). She only faced four, the last place finisher Baela coming back to beat $25,000 claimers in her next start. This gal won a G1 as a juvie but has made just three starts since. A tough read what we see out of this gal here but if she moves forward a couple of lengths off her return efforts that puts her in the mix.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

#3 Arizona Blaze      

Grade
A

M Line
5-1

Fair Odds
9-2

Arizona Blaze gets the call and I am looking for the Euros here. The Euro invaders have won 2 of the last 5 editions of this race including last year with bomber Starlust ($69.20). Our top pick was up close early in the Flying Free (G1) over yielding ground at the Curragh and held on to win by a length. He bounced back after a non threatening 11th in the Nunthrope (G1) two back. He came with a good late run last year here to finish second at 27-1.

#7 She’s Quality       

Grade
B

M Line
20-1

Fair Odds
12-1

She’s Quality has lost eight in a row, but this filly has put in several solid efforts including a neck loss in the King George Qatar (G2) at Goodwood this summer and last out beaten just three lengths in the  Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp (G1) in a third place finish. She finished behind a couple of these two back in a fourth-place finish in the Flying Free but was beaten just 1 1/4 lengths for the top spot. She has run well on firmer turf and is going to be a generous price for low profile connections.

#11 Bucanera Fuerte

Grade
C

M Line
20-1

Fair Odds
14-1

Bucanera Fuerte was third beaten a length in the Flying Free last out, which was contested over yielding ground. He won the Phoenix (G1) two back on good ground at the Curragh. He has won half of his 12 career starts and looks capable of moving forward off his last effort as he seems like his ground firmer than he got last out.

#1 Motorious             

Grade
C

M Line
7-2

Fair Odds
5-1

Motorious had a rough trip getting shuffled back early in the Green Flash ‘Cap (G3). The gelding came outward and finished with a bold run to miss by just a nose but was placed first thanks to the DQ of Reef Runner, who was placed second and then came back to win the Eddie read (G2) next out. The D’Amato trainee missed in this race by just a neck last year. Draws the rail and has the look of a runner that may end up taking too much betting action but would be no surprise. 

Breeders’ Cup Sprint

#11 Mullikin          

Grade
A

M Line
15-1

Fair Odds
10-1

Mullikan faded to finish a well beaten seventh in the Forego (G1) in his last start in August, a real clunker. He has been freshened up and working sharply and is a candidate for a big bounce back. Two back he was a good second behind Book ’em Danno in the Vanderbilt (G2) earning a career top speed figure. Running second to that foe who likely would have been the favorite here is looking pretty good and this guy is going to be a decent price. Prat sticks.

#7 Imagination      

Grade
A

M Line
6-1

Fair Odds
9-2

Imagination came back off an eight-month layoff to win the SA Sprint Championship (G2) last out. Baffert has won this race five times, the most recent with Drefong in 2016. His 2013 winner Secret Circle was making his second start off the bench.

#8 Nakatomi          

Grade
B

M Line
15-1

Fair Odds
10-1

Nakatomi is coming off a win in the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland. He was sixth in this race last year also prepping in the Phoenix where he ran second. He has not run back to his big figure he earned in last year’s Vanderbilt but looks like he may be sitting on a good one here and don’t forget he ran a good third in this race in 2023 at 26-1.

#10 Bentornato     

Grade
B

M Line
5-2

Fair Odds
7-2

Bentornato nearly pulled off the upset in this race last year at 28-1, coming up a half-length short to Straight No Chaser He hit the sidelines for 10 months, returning at Churchill to pop a 108 Beyer off the layoff. He has won 6 of his 10 career starts but tough call if he regresses second off the bench or moves forward, and his price is going to end up on the light side.

Breeders’ Cup Distaff

#4 Scylla               

Grade
A

M Line
15-1

Fair Odds
12-1

Scylla stretched back out to a route last out in the Spinster (G1) and ran a decent third behind a couple of foes she faces again today. It was her first start around two turns since a solid runner up in the Clement Hirsch (G1) in August of 2024 over the main track here. She won back to back routes at Churchill taking the Shawnee (G3) and Fleur de Lis (G2). The Spinster is always a productive prep and this gal is going to be a decent price for Mott.

#1 Nitrogen           

Grade
A

M Line
4-1

Fair Odds
7-2

Nitrogen also exits the Spinster where she was beaten just a head by Gin Gin who was 18-1. She won 6 of her first 7 starts this year including taking the Alabama (G1) two back. She has done some of her best running on turf but has shown in her last two trips she is just as good on dirt. She shows up every race and the 4-1 morning line looks fair enough.

#8 Seismic Beauty

Grade
B

M Line
9-5

Fair Odds
5-2

Seismic Beauty took the field gate to wire to win the Clement Hirsch (G1) last out over the main track here and returns off a three-month break for Baffert. The third-place finisher Richi came back to run second in the Zenyatta and the Hirsch fourth was Royal Spa who came back to win the Locust Grove (G2) at Churchill Downs in her next outing. She is one of just two in here that have earned a triple digit Beyer, our fourth choice in here the other.

#12 Dorth Vader 

Grade
B

M Line
5-1

Fair Odds
6-1

Dorth Vader gave Thorpedo Anna all she could handle in the Personal Ensign (G1) last out, beaten just a nose at 11-1. She was nearly 10 lengths clear of the rest of the field. She seems likely to get bet down from her 5-1 morning line. So she may end up an underlay but has been working smartly since her last outing and has had enough time to avoid a bounce.

Breeders’ Cup Turf

#2 Goliath                

Grade
A

M Line
8-1

Fair Odds
5-1

Goliath gets the call as it is tough to separate the top three and we will go with the more generous price of the trio for the top spot. The gelding is coming off a G1 win in Germany on good ground. His form was better last year when he pulled off the upset in the King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Ascot at 25-1, beating Rebel’s Romance that day and it was over good to firm turf. He is a six-time winner at the distance and the 8-1 morning line looks more than fair.

#1 Rebel’s Romance

Grade
A

M Line
5-2

Fair Odds
3-1

Rebel’s Romance is now seven years old and is showing no signs of slowing down. The two-time BC Turf winner put in a solid prep winning the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) last out at Belmont at the Big A. He prevailed in this race last year at 9-5 by a neck. He should work out a ground saving trip sitting close to the pace under his regular rider Buick. The only real knock is how low the price goes.

#8 Minnie Hauk        

Grade
B

M Line
8-5

Fair Odds
2-1

Minnie Hauk is an incredibly talented three-year-old filly. The last three-year-old filly to take the turf was Found in 2015 for Aiden O’Brien. This gal was beaten just a head in the Arc and horses that exit the Arc off a loss have fared very well in this race over the years. She went into the Arc riding a five race winning steak including three G1 wins. She handled good to firm turf two back winning the Yorkshire Oaks (G1) at York in one of her best looking efforts. She will be very tough here but at a light price.

#3 Amiloc                  

Grade
C

M Line
10-1

Fair Odds
12-1

Amiloc is lightly raced compared to the rest of the field here with just six starts under his belt. He won his first five, then had to settle for second in the Irish St. Leger last out behind Al Riffa. Two back he won the King Edward VII (G2) at Royal Ascot. The runner up Zahrann came back to win the G3 Royal Whip Stakes next out. Looks like he has as much upside as anyone in this field.

Breeders’ Cup Classic

#5 Forever Young

Grade
A

M Line
7-2

Fair Odds
3-1

Forever Young makes his third start in the states and it may be time for this talented Japanese horse to break through. Last year he ran well in this race in a third-place finish, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. That spring he was beaten just a couple of noses in a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In his other 10 starts he has won nine times including a Saudi Derby (G3) and a Saudi Cup (G1). He always fires and among the top three here likely will be the best price.

#7 Sierra Leone  

Grade
A

M Line
7-2

Fair Odds
7-2

The defending champ was 8-1 on the original morning line before the scratch of the favorite. He ran huge here last year winning the Classic with a career top Beyer. He came from almost 20 lengths back last out but could not get to the winner in a runner up finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) as the beaten chalk. He needs some pace which he should get thanks to his stablemate. Has a legit shot of repeating.

#1 Fierceness     

Grade
B

M Line
5-2

Fair Odds
7-2

Fierceness overcame ducking in toward the temporary rail last out which cost him a few lengths and rolled to a good looking win in the Pacific Classic (G1), beating Journalism by 4 1/4 lengths. He bounced back after a clunker two back in a fifth-place finish in the Whitney (G1). He was second in this race last year, but after earning back to back 111 Beyers last year his best in four starts this year is a 107. He certainly can win with his best but can’t get too excited about backing him at 5-2.

#9 Journalism    

Grade
C

M Line
5-1

Fair Odds
6-1

Journalism came with a good late rally to finish second in the Pacific Classic, beaten 3 1/4 lengths. The colt has now landed in the exacta in 9 of his 10 career starts. Another in here that needs some pace. He needs to move forward several lengths off his career best numbers to get the top spot here. It’s not out of the question but would like to see his ML drift upwards a few points before jumping in on him.

Breeders’ Cup Mile

#4 The Lion in Winter

Grade
A

M Line
6-1

Fair Odds
9-2

The Lion in Winter gets the nod and we are going Euro here as the home team has won this race just once in the last five years. The colt is winless in six starts this year but comes in off back to back solid efforts. Two back he was beaten just a nose and a neck when third behind Sahlan and Rosallion in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1), a key prep. He then went to Ascot where he was a good second in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1), beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Cicero’s Gift. O’Brien has won this race just once with 29 starters but this guy can make it two and we should catch a fair price.

#3 Sahlan                   

Grade
A

M Line
6-1

Fair Odds
5-1

Sahlan beat our top pick last out in the Prix du Moulin and runners coming in off French preps have done well in this race. The colt ran well two back winning a G3 over firm turf at Deauville. Three-year-olds have won 3 of the last 7 editions of this race. Another contender that should end up a decent price.

#2 Notable Speech     

Grade
B

M Line
5-2

Fair Odds
7-2

Notable Speech was the beaten favorite in this race last year in a close up third, beaten 3.4 of a length and may end up the betting favorite again this year. Last year he used the Prix du Moulin as his prep, this year he shipped into Woodbine where he was a smart looking winner of the Woodbine Mile (G1). Appleby ran 2022 and 2023 Mile winners Modern Games and Master of the Seas in the Woodbine Mile, then ran them both in the Queen Elizabeth II as their final preps. After a couple of fourths and a fifth to start off his 2025 campaign this guy appears to be coming into this race in top form.

#7 Johannes               

Grade
C

M Line
8-1

Fair Odds
8-1

Johannes appears the best of the home team, coming in off a victory in the City of Hope (G2) over the Santa Anita turf. He has won 9 of his dozen career starts on turf. Last year in this race the Yakteem trainee came with a good late rally and finished gamely to miss by just 3/4 of a length at 9-2. Looks like he is going to end up a better price this year but catches a solid group of Euros.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

#6 Full Serrano       

Grade
A

M Line
7-2

Fair Odds
7-2

Full Serrano is the defending champ in here and catches a tougher and faster group here this year. Last year he pressed the early pace, opened up a lead heading for home and drew clear smartly to win by 1 1/2 lengths. He came in last year off a solid runner up finish in the Pacific Classic (G1) where he set the early fractions and could not hold off Mixto late. This year he set the early fractions in his final prep in the Goodwood (G1) and was beaten by Nevada Beach as the beaten chalk. He should get a good trip sitting just off the pace. Horses on or near the lead have won this race in 5 of the last 7 years.

#3 Nysos                 

Grade
A

M Line
8-5

Fair Odds
2-1

Nysos is one of three in here sent out by the Baffert barn that sports a 0 for 12 mark in this race. The colt is returning off a three month break here after winning the San Diego ‘cap (G2) over the main track here in July. He won the Bob Hope (G3) back in 2023 in his other trip over the Del Mar main track. His two stablemates should assure a fast early pace and he should be in a good spot sitting not too far off the pace.

#10 White Abarrio   

Grade
B

M Line
8-1

Fair Odds
6-1

White Abarrio did not fire his best in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last out in a fifth-place finish. He has bounced back off bad efforts in the past and the 2023 Classic winner has lost a step or two but still owns three triple digit Beyers this year.

#4 Mystik Dan          

Grade
C

M Line
6-1

Fair Odds
8-1

Mystik Dan bounced back last out with a sharp win in the Lukas Classic (G2) at Churchill Downs going nine furlongs. The 2024 Derby winner has won just twice in nine starts since taking home the roses. He has shown some tactical speed going nine furlongs in recent starts but the cut back to a mile may be too sharp. At least he should see some pace to run into.

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

#9 Cinderella’s Dream

Grade
A

M Line
9-2

Fair Odds
4-1

Cinderella’s Dream was the beaten favorite in this race last year, making a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot behind Moira. She prepped by winning the Belmont Oaks (G1) and Saratoga Oaks (G2). She won the Falmouth (G1) in July over good to firm turf and did not fire her best in her last two starts against solid company, a fourth and a third. Appleby should have her ready to go.

#5 Gezora                   

Grade
A

M Line
7-2

Fair Odds
9-2

Gezora failed to fire in the Arc (G1), and we will just toss that outing over soft ground. Her three previous efforts are good enough to win this race including a win in the Prix de Diane (G1) three back. She has handled firmer ground and should bounce back with a much better effort here on ground she likes better.

#14 See The Fire         

Grade
B

M Line
5-1

Fair Odds
5-1

See The Fire does not draw the best of posts, with posts 12-14 a combined 1 for 28 in this race. She was beaten just a neck in the Prix de l’Opera (G1) over that soft ground on Arc day. She came up short in her three previous G1 efforts but ran into some tough customers including Ombudsman, Delacroix, and Birr Castle. If Murphy can work out a trip this filly should be right in the mix late.

#6 Diamond Rain         

Grade
C

M Line
6-1

Fair Odds
8-1

Diamond Rain won a G3 across the pond and then shipped to Woodbine and just missed in the E.P. Taylor (G1) by a head to She Feels Pretty. The filly earned a solid speed figure and the firmer ground suited her. Appleby won this race in 2017 with Wuheida.

Good Luck today!

Please check all program numbers and post times before wagering.
Prices listed are the morning line odds followed by fair odds.

Race Ratings:
$$$$: The strongest plays/opinions of the day. Some days there will not be a race at this rating, but when there is, it’s straight to the betting window.
$$$: These races are the better wagering opportunities of the day. I either have a strong opinion on my top pick or feel this is a great race for value in the exotics.
$$: These races are usually races where I do not have a strong opinion, or feel my top pick may end up going off at a short price. A moderate investment only and spread races when playing horizontal bets.
$: These races are in most cases a pass. Usually races with short fields offering little value or just inscrutable. Small investment or pass and spread races when playing horizontal bets.

For exacta players, I usually will play my “A” horses over my “B” and “C” horses that offer value. I rarely box. For trifecta players, as a general rule I do not play trifectas or superfectas in fields of eight or less. When playing trifectas, I usually will key my “A” horses in the top spot adding my “B” horses in the second spot over “C” horses in the third spot.  In the rolling doubles, I usually use my “A” horses in each race, using “B” and “C” horses only when they offer good betting value. I generally do not play Pick 3’s and focus on Pick 4’s and Pick 5’s with lower takeout. I have each of my top horses ranked “A” “B” or “C” and play multiple tickets.