Championship Saturday Breeders’ Cup Analysis

Race 4 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

1. Explora 2. Kilwin 3. Majestic Oops

Longshot: Kerry’s Kiss

Analysis: You maybe have to be a little nutty to toss out 7-5 favorite Ways and Means, but hasn’t she brought it on herself? Last time she lined up in the Filly & Mare Sprint she checked in fifth behind Saffie Joseph bomber Soul of an Angel. Her entire record outside of New York tracks is an appalling 0-for-5. Let’s go shopping: Toss the Kentucky Oaks and Explora has never missed the exacta in 10 starts. Seven furlongs is her optimal distance, yet she defeated Counting Stars at a mile and a sixteenth and was second last year in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies as well at that distance. At seven furlongs, she won the marquee Grade 1 Test for fun. She’s working like a machine for trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race first with Gamine and last year with Splendora. Explora figures to stalk R Disaster close up. That pace rival got away with a 45 3/5-second half mile in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom at Belmont, and it would be shocking to see Jose Ortiz, on Explora, let her do it again. Explora’s 4-1 morning line price would be a gift. Kilwin, the other Test winner in the field, is highly disrespected at 8-1 on the line and should stay around there with jockey Javier Castellano – no longer riding with the top tier – getting the call. This $3 million auction sale tends to drop well back, which isn’t ideal at Keeneland, but she has proven she will come running whether the half-mile goes in 44 seconds or 46. Being based at Keeneland doesn’t hurt and she bounded down the lane in her final work Oct. 24 exuding vitality. On paper, Majestic Oops looks like a two-turn runner, but this 6-year-old mare has the speed to sit close enough to threaten with her devastating late punch. Her win over Nitrogen is all you need to know about her class. Her schedule looks to have been clearly designed to reach this objective for months, and her penultimate work Oct. 17 against the fast turf stakes gelding Atomic Age and another mate was on point.

Race 5 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

1. Comanche Brave 2. Yellow Card 3. Joe Shiesty

Longshot: Shisospicy

Analysis: I would love to pick the prototypical hard-knocking gelding Joe Shiesty, but the pace for this race looks massive. Still, I would not count him out. However, Comanche Brave is monstrously dangerous in a field where so many runners want the front. The son of elite sire Wootton Bassett, who died last fall, is coming in off two Group 1 victories with the best Timeform ratings of his life. In April, at Sha Tin in Hong Kong, he faced the top-rated sprinter in the world, Ka Ying Rising, who won 21 straight races before going down to defeat on soft ground at Royal Randwick in Australia. Comanche Brave’s trainer Donacha O’Brien commented after the loss by 6 ½ lengths that the horse didn’t like the right-hand turns. Here, he goes left. O’Brien’s confidence has to be there to be here. Draws a wonderful post and his regular rider. No lock but hugely formidable. Yellow Card is a classy sleeper who purposefully has been laid off since May by trainer Michael McCarthy to come into this race fresh. In 2024 and 2025, McCarthy was 10 for 75 with turf runners off 90-day layoffs (13%), but if you put a $2 flat bet on all of them, he returned $58. The ability to track or close from six lengths back into heavy speed is a great tactical advantage for Yellow Card and the reigning champion jockey Flavien Pratt retains the mount. Has blown away high-quality allowance mates in two most recent works, although was asked several times in the lane in the last one, powering away from his rival. Joe Shiesty is one of the coolest, most-exciting horses in training – a torrid, relentless alpha competitor. Fully expect him to obliterate the blisteringly quick morning-line favorite Bacio at the half-mile mark, and then it’s a question of what that costs him. There are plenty other pace players in the mix. None of them want to win more than honest Joe.

Race 6 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

1. Lord Fons 2. Owen Almighty 3. Forged Steel

Longshot: T Kraft

Analysis: Workingman’s favs Coal Battle, Chunk of Gold and Owen Almighty all line up here to put on a show, but the class of the whole batch screams Grade 2 and 3. Except for Lord Fons, a wildcard, who has been competing with the elite runners in Japan and finally hitting his best at age 6. Trainer Shogo Yasuda purposefully has laid off Lord Fons since his giant score in the Sakitama Hai Stakes in June to point for the Breeders’ Cup. In that race, he set up shop in third along the inside behind two leaders. Obviously, a “garden spot,” but most impressive was his tipping out and sustaining a long, powerful drive outside to clear off well ahead of the late-running world class Wilson Tesoro. Lord Fons is beautifully drawn in the

No. 6 post. For horizontal wagers, this race has spread to protect written all over it, but 15-1 is enormous value on a rock-solid Japanese entrant. Yasuda is ranked as one of the top trainers in the world, and his father, Takayuki Yasuda, is one of the most famous names in Japanese racing, top class as both a jockey and trainer. The younger Yasuda has tried the Breeders’ Cup once before, sending his fleet Puro Magic to the Turf Sprint last year at Del Mar, where she finished 10th off a tough trip. Owen Almighty regains the services of Luis Saez, who is simply deadly when riding for trainer Brian Lynch. Aggressive and tactical, expect Saez to find a good trip from the sub-optimal No. 10 post position. The key will be to get Owen Almighty to settle and clear. He has gotten much faster as a 4-year-old, but may prefer one-turn miles to this two. In the Grade 3 Ack Ack last out at Churchill Downs, he broke sharply, was squeezed back between runners and was taken to the inside. Pinned in behind a tiring leader, he lost the flow of the race and important momentum before rallying up the rail for third. Any return to his prior Beyer Speed Figures, and he’s a top threat. Forged Steel somehow is 15-1 off a victory in the Grade 1 Goodwood at Santa Anita. Earlier this year, he cut back from a 1 ½ mile marathon at Oaklawn Park to easily win a mile allowance race. He should not be penalized for being run off his feet by Phileas Fogg and Knightsbridge. Rather he should be extolled for attending the vanguard in punishing 1¼-mile races against the top-class routers. The cutback fits perfectly, and he looms a serious threat for trainer Saffie Joseph, who wins in every scenario imaginable.

7. Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

1. Gimme a Nother 2. Blue Bolt 3. Expensive Queen

Longshot: Bless the Broken

Analysis: Trainer Graham Motion has been knocking on the door of the National Racing Hall of Fame, and the 6-year-old South African mare Gimme a Nother could be the one to get him in. What a terrific climb through the North American ranks, as Motion has guided her through eight races at seven different racetracks, all finishes in the exacta except over boggy going in the Grade 1 New York last year at Saratoga. She is on a four-race winning streak and proven a steady galloper who has repeatedly dug in late from forward positions. Look at her first North American Grade 1 score, last out in the mile-and-a-quarter E P Taylor: Gimme a Nother tracked effortlessly on the inside through crawling fractions of 51 3/5ths for a half mile and 1:16 3/5th for six furlongs. When the desperate racing began, she was behind horses and courageously surged through them and held off the driving runs of

See the Fire and Jancis (in this field). In July, Jancis finished second behind this race’s favorite, Blue Bolt, by 1¾ lengths at Blue Bolt’s preferred distance of a mile. If that’s a fair and valid cross-reference, Gimme a Nother must be considered strongly here, being this is her preferred distance. Based on pure achievement, Juddmonte’s Blue Bolt towers over this field – a winner of four straight Group 1 races in France, Ireland and Great Britain, the 4-year-old daughter of Blue Point is at the peak of her power. But a crack miler is not necessarily a crack at a mile and three-sixteenths. True, the family bucks the pedigree’s long-term miler trend by being littered with long-winded runners on the female side – so maybe the stamina is there, but a short price on something so important, so unproven is hard to accept. And it’s not like her Timeform numbers explode off the page. Obvious threat. Expensive Queen is a fascinating wild card in this race at 15-1. Last out, Oct. 3 in the Grade 1 First Lady mile off a layoff since April, she received an uncharacteristically docile ride by Luis Saez after being jostled on the first turn and in traffic down the backside. At one point, after being forwardly placed, she dropped all the way back to last place, and without urgency came home like a non-threatening slingshot to close the gap to 1 ¾ lengths. The race was unquestionably a prep for this. Like Blue Bolt, Expensive Queen has distance questions to answer, but there is no doubt after her Grade 1 Jenny Wiley win over the Keeneland course in April she has hit her peak this year. Outworked stablemate Lush Lips (also in here) on Oct. 20 and is lightly raced, loves the course and is in expert hands.

Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Sprint

1. T O Elvis 2. Dark Saffron 3. Nakatomi

Longshot: Mad House

Analysis: Only a fool would think this race doesn’t run through Englishman, but as fast and awe inspiring as that 3-year-old has been, his hurdles are much, much higher here. For one, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint is a heck of a time to try older. Since 1984, only nine 3-year-olds have won this race. Only two of them – Trinniberg and Cajun Beat – did it in their first try against older horses. That’s it. Two out of 42 races. Englishman is 4-5. He’s all yours. Englishman’s best two races came at Saratoga, both at seven furlongs. He has only run this six-furlong distance once in his life. He likes to overpower the opposition with incredible pace. Good luck trying that with Mad House, who runs 44-second half miles in his sleep and is plenty rested for this race. LIstenupshance is another rocket, who almost beat champion Book’em Danno this summer in the True North. We’ll go here with the proven freak, T O Elvis, the Japanese runner who left jaws on the floor with his devastating victory Kentucky Derby Day in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs. The speed disintegrated under his charge, including favorite Knightsbridge, a candidate for the Breeders’ Cup Classic and considered one of the fastest horses in the country. T O Elvis hasn’t raced since that day but has won every start off a layoff in his five-race winning streak. Expect him to be primed. Dark Saffron is a two-time winner of the prestigious Group 1 Golden Shaheen at Meydan making his first venture out of the United Arab Emirates. He has twice knocked off Nakatomi in the Shaheen, which is contested, like the Sprint, over a left-turn course. His connections gave him a planned layoff after winning the Shaheen in March to avoid a campaign in the summer heat. He beat last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, Bentornato, in that start. He’s been gelded since then. Who knows how he travels? We just know he’s fast. Nakatomi is a hard-knocking 7-year-old gelding, pace dependent and full of class. He loves Keeneland, where his trainer Wesley Ward is a proven master. His best speed figures don’t pop out, but he closes stoutly. He had no chance last year at Del Mar when Bentornato went gate to wire. He will get tiring runners to come down on here.

Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Mile

1. Notable Speech 2. Lake Forest 3. Deterministic

Longshot: Ask Ikigomi

Analysis: With $4.2 million in earnings, Notable Speech appears poised to fend off chaos and let form hold, reflecting his 7-5 morning-line odds. Expertly handled by the renowned Charlie Appleby, he enters as the defending champion, and it’s hard to find holes in the resume. The Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile off a five-month layoff this spring was only lost in seriously nightmarish stretch traffic, and he still got beaten less than two lengths. He has since won three of four starts – all Group or Grade 1 – with the only loss coming on the straightaway at Ascot in the Queen Anne. Tremendous class. Lake Forest finished second in August behind Notable Speech in the Group 1 City of York charging out of the rear in a 14-horse field. Trainer William Haggas sent him to Keeneland in October, obviously to test the waters for this run, and he finished a fine second to Rhetorical. This, however, is the true objective and watching him gallop in the morning he looks like a WWII tank. He’s never won a Group 1 in 21 starts, but he looks primed to deliver a big-time performance. Deterministic brings speed, class and consistency to the Mile, with hungry underdog Kendrick Carmouche in the irons. He lost to Notable Speech last out in the Woodbine Mile

and draws the rail again. With Rhetorical and the blazing Cabo Spirit in the field, the pace should be testing, and he will need his absolute best to win.

Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Distaff

1. Nitrogen 2. Fully Subscribed 3. Eunomia

Longshot: Super Corredora

Analysis: The scratches of Splendora and Scottish Lassie took a lot of the intrigue out of this race and certainly a lot of the speed. It looked like a titanic pace war on paper and now looks like Nitrogen’s race to lose. The Grade 2 Beldame ain’t what it used to be, but it was a suitable, untaxing warmup for Nitrogen’s second try at the Distaff. She is vastly superior to Immersive, the speed horse to her inside, who couldn’t maintain a lead through six furlongs in 1:13 in a three-horse field in the Spinster on the track. Nitrogen demolished the Spinster winner Fully Subscribed in the Grade1 Ogden Phipps and then after a two-month break gave the top male horses in the country all they could handle in the Grade 1 Whitney. Would be stunned if she lost, even as Fully Subscribed has improved markedly since the Phipps. Eunomia, for the ever-cagey Saffie Joseph, ran a knockout over the Keeneland track in a Grade 2 stakes in April, just missing by a neck to Alpine Princess. She came back after a crushing defeat in the one-turn Grade 2 Ruffian at Aqueduct to travel west in August and take a Grade 1 against a field that had no correlation to Nitrogen. Still, she’s only 4 and is licensed to improve for a master trainer.

Race 11  Breeders’ Cup Turf

1. Diamond Necklace 2. Deep Monster 3. Johanna Walsh

Longshot: Hotazhell

Analysis: Legendary trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Breeders’ Cup Turf an amazing seven times. In 2015, he did it with a 3-year-old filly named Found, who finished ninth in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe then second in the Group 1 Champion Stakes before taking the Turf. His lightly raced 3-year-old filly Diamond Necklace comes into this race off a third in the Arc, and the Champion Stakes winner Ombudsman was withheld from this race. Her class is obvious – four straight Group 1 wins from 2 to 3 before a defeat on soft ground at Deauville. The Arc, on giving good ground, was her first try at 1½ miles and she acquitted herself brilliantly. Diamond Necklace comes from an incredible female family, with two half-sisters who won Group 1 races. Diamond Necklace relishes firm ground and only needs a minor step forward to take this down. True, Deep Monster is marooned out in the No. 14 post in a race that starts on the far turn, but the hard-hitting Japanese 8-year-old was woefully lined at 30-1. He began to get himself to a higher level last October when he beat 17 runners at 10-1 in a Group 2 stakes at Kyoto at the distance. The Group 1 Japan Cup proved way too much, but in February, he won a $2.5 million Group 2 race in Qatar under Tom Marquand, who is back aboard for the Breeders’ Cup. Charlie Appleby’s El Cordobes was in the field that day (and in this race), and he won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer last year at Saratoga. The true worth of Deep Monster can be found two races back in May, the Group 1 Standard Chartered Championship & Chater at Sha Tin in Hong Kong. He came home a flying third on a fast course behind the beastly Romantic Warrior, who only won 24 of 31 lifetime races, 15 that were Group 1. This year’s Turf is almost totally bereft of pace, so why not Johanna Walsh, another enterprising 3-year-old filly for Aidan O’Brien’s son Joseph? While her female family isn’t of the class of Diamond Necklace’s, Johanna Walsh is by the six-time Group 1-winning superstar Sea The Stars, who stands for 300,000 euros, or the equivalent of about $336,000 U.S. dollars. She won the Group 1 Irish Oaks on fast ground and her running lines all put her prominent or leading start to finish. She will need to get faster to win, but the lack of pace horses plays in her favor.

Race 12  Breeders’ Cup Classic

1. Forever Young 2. Napoleon Solo 3. Sovereignty

Longshot: None

Analysis: The scratch of Magnitude is a seismic change to the complexion of the Classic, leaving Knightsbridge and Napoleon Solo as the only two horses with the potential to flee the mighty Forever Young. The Japanese defending champion couldn’t ask for a better setup. Last year, Chad Brown sent out rabbit Contrary Thinking to set a good pace for his talented deep closer Sierra Leone, and Forever Young still won. Knightsbridge figures to go to the lead here under Luis Saez, but Napoleon Solo is capable of stalking and likely prefers a target. While Knightsbridge is considered superior, Napoleon Solo has shown high speed and intense focus and competitiveness in his races, each one faster than the prior.

The 3-year-old class is hardly one for the ages, but to win the Preakness and just get beat out in both the Haskell and Travers takes talent. Meantime, in his best races, Knightsbridge has defeated Steal Sunshine, Money Game and Original Sin – all not even remotely qualified to race in here. He is getting a true acid test and, as much as Bill Mott and Godolphin might say otherwise, he likely is in to make some pace for Sovereignty and keep Napoleon Solo company. At his very best, Sovereignty likely gives Forever Young a tremendous challenge, but who knows where this horse is really at? A foot abscess forced him to skip a planned start in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, so he’s been off since Aug. 8, when he beat filly Nitrogen in the Grade 1 Whitney. Before that, he had lost to Magnitude and White Abarrio. His Travers win in 2025 came over Bracket Buster, who has never won a graded stakes race but did finish first in a race at Mountaineer Park. Magnitude, who ran third in the Travers, has never taken to Saratoga. Sorry fans, Sovereignty doesn’t look the same class as Forever Young. The Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo figures to be woefully pace compromised with the scratches. The Puma doesn’t inspire with a win over faint-hearted Further Ado in the Pennsylvania Derby. As for T O Password, who knows? The Japanese are always coming in these races.